Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 17 2021 - 00Z Tue Oct 19 2021

...Severe weather in the Northeast tonight...

...Seasonal temperatures return to eastern third of the country; cooldown
in the West while northern/central U.S. warms-up through Monday...

...Elevated fire weather conditions continue in Southern California; snow
returns to the Sierra...

A cold front, which has been the focus for precipitation east of the
Mississippi Valley over the past couple of days, will continue to produce
rainfall for much of the Northeast this evening before moving offshore
tomorrow. Flooding concerns are expected to be marginal across the
Northeast, a shift to northwesterly winds in the wake of the cold front
will lead to an extended period of rainfall, ending Sunday evening,
downwind of the Lower Great Lakes region due to lake effect enhancement.
Scattered to isolated thunderstorms are also possible for this area.
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible for parts of the Northeast this
evening as indicated by a Slight Risk area issued by the Storm Prediction
Center. A return to Fall-like temperatures is in store for the East coast
over the next few days after a brief warm spell.

Meanwhile, upper-level ridging across the central U.S. will spread
eastward over the next few days and eventually settle over the Southeast
by Monday leading to sunny and seasonal conditions for the region. An
amplified upper-level trough will eject a surface low pressure system over
the Pacific Northwest tonight. This system will go on to produce lower
elevation rainfall along the Northwest coast as well as inland areas while
generating snowfall across much of the Sierra and parts of the
intermountain West through Monday. Temperatures will rise across the
Northern/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley out ahead of
this system. High temperatures may reach 10-20 degrees above average in
some places. High pressure is expected to build across the Pacific
Northwest on Monday which will lead to a cool-down for much of the Western
U.S. over the following days. An Elevated Fire risk area is in effect for
Southern California tonight as dry and windy conditions continue to pose a
the threat to the region.

Kebede

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php