Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 26 2021 - 12Z Thu Oct 28 2021

...Nor'easter to generate heavy rain and strong winds across Northeast
through Wednesday...

...Deep system responsible for heavy rain across California to emerge over
the Plains today, potentially sparking severe weather over the
Central/Southern Plains...

...Wet pattern continues across the Pacific Northwest and Rockies through
midweek...

A pair of low pressure waves will consolidate into a single Nor'easter off
of the New Jersey coast today. This system will batter much of the
Northeast with high winds, scattered thunderstorms and heavy rainfall
until Wednesday evening when the Nor'easter will move well enough offshore
to end its impacts on the Northeast. Rainfall totals are expected to be
between 1-2 inches with isolated pockets receiving more than 2 inches by
Wednesday evening. Flash flooding is a concern for much of the Northeast,
but especially for northern New Jersey into southern New England where a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect today. The heavy rainfall
can be treacherous as is, but the addition of high winds due to a
tightening pressure gradient north of the system will mean compounding
hazardous weather, particularly for travel. Seasonal temperatures will
return to the East today as the associated cold front pushes offshore this
morning. Highs will be well below average over the Central Appalachians
and Ohio Valley today.

The system responsible for producing heavy rain across California will
deepen as it ejects out over the Central Plains today. Rain and scattered
thunderstorms will proliferate along this system's surface fronts oriented
meridionally across the Great Plains. Severe thunderstorm activity is
likely to develop out ahead of what is expected to be a tight and well
defined dew point gradient/dry line extending from northwestern Kansas
through central Texas today. The main severe threat will come in the form
of strong wind gusts and some large hail associated with bowing convective
segments emanating from the dry line. There also exists the potential for
embedded tornadoes within these linear convective systems. High
temperatures will climb into the mid-80s to low-90s within the warm sector
of the system across much of the Central/Southern Great Plains today
before the arrival of the cold front. Rain and thunderstorms are
forecasted to spread into the Mississippi Valley and Southeast through
midweek. Rainfall totals will generally remain between 1-2 inches for
these areas with locally higher amounts possible for parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley by Thursday.

Meanwhile, a series of low pressure systems will continue this seasonal
wet pattern for the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Low
elevation rain and high elevation heavy snow will impact much of the
coastal Pacific Northwest and Cascades respectfully. A few inches of rain
are likely for the low elevations while 1-2 feet of snow is likely across
much of the highest peaks of the northern Cascades. Lighter snow amounts
are expected over much of the high Rocky Mountain peaks. High temperatures
will drop significantly today as high pressure builds over the West on the
backside of the severe weather system over the Plains. Highs are expected
to drop down to 15-25 degrees below average for much of the Great Basin
and California. Seasonal temperatures will return to the West on Wednesday.

Kebede

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php