Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 27 2021 - 12Z Fri Oct 29 2021

...Rain and strong winds associated with Nor'easter will begin to wind
down across the Northeast today as system moves out into the Atlantic...

...Anomalous low pressure system to spark severe weather across Gulf Coast
today and then much of the Southeast on Thursday...

...Wet pattern continues across the Pacific Northwest through Thusday...

The Nor'easter responsible for producing flash flooding and powerful winds
across much of the Northeast will begin to wane in strength and impact
today as the surface low moves out into the North Atlantic. Additional
rainfall amounts will be marginal, but winds will remain strong until this
evening when the surface pressure gradient is weakens. Wind advisories,
high wind warnings and flood watches remain in effect for parts of
southern New England. Autumn-like temperatures will return to the East
Coast for the next several days in the wake of the departing Nor'easter as
well as the arrival of high pressure over the Ohio Valley and eventually
the Northeast.

Our current significant weather maker is generating rain showers and
thunderstorms across the Great Plains. The low pressure system responsible
for this will spread thunderstorm activity into the Mississippi Valley and
Gulf Coast over the next few days. Severe thunderstorms are likely to form
along the primary cold front moving from the Southern Plains to the Gulf
coast through Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center issued an Enhanced
Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for the Louisiana coast today as well as
Slight Risks for the much of the Gulf and Southeast coasts through
Thursday. Convective line segments capable of generating damaging winds
and brief tornadoes are expected from these storms. This system will also
produce an axis of 1-2 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts,
particularly due to convection, across much of the Mississippi Valley
today. The upper-level pattern will slow down and deepen into a closed low
on Thursday as it directs moisture from the Southeast into the
Mid-Atlantic and Central Appalachians, where an inch of rain is possible
with locally higher amounts. Showers will spread into the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast this weekend as this system occludes and elevates into the
region. Below average high temperatures will filter in the wake of this
system over the Mississippi Valley and Southeast heading into the weekend.

An approaching low pressure system will bring more wet weather to the
Pacific Northwest late today through Friday. Heavy snow will impact the
northern Cascades today while lower elevations receive rain showers over
the next couple of days. Critical Fire Weather is forecast for parts of
the Southern Plains today and Thursday. Areas untouched by the ongoing
rainfall and severe weather, eastern New Mexico and south Texas, will be
especially susceptible to fire weather due to dry conditions and high
surface wind speeds on the order of 15-25 mph.


Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php