Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 28 2021 - 12Z Sat Oct 30 2021

...Anomalous low pressure system to spawn severe weather across Southeast
today...

...Flash Flooding threat moves into the Mid-Atlantic states on Friday...

...Wet pattern continues across the Pacific Northwest...

An area of low pressure will deepen as it brings scattered showers and
thunderstorms from the Midwest to the Southeast today before setting its
sights on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for Friday. Some thunderstorms
may be severe today for much of Florida and the Southeast, where line
segments capable of producing damaging winds as well as isolated tornadoes
out ahead of the cold front are possible. A Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms is in effect for these areas today. This occluded system
will swing its fronts north along the East coast on Friday as it spreads
moisture across the Northeast in the form of rain showers. Heavy rain
leading to Flash flooding is a concern for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and
Central Appalachians where between 1-2 inches of rain may fall by Saturday
morning. Temperatures are expected to fall precipitously across the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley today and then across the Southeast on
Friday in the wake of this anomalous low pressure system in the east. High
temperatures will be between 15-25 degrees below average for these areas
over the next two days.

A potent yet brief atmospheric river event is likely to occur over the
Pacific Northwest later today as a low pressure system makes its way
across the region. The heaviest rainfall will occur over the Olympics and
Cascades through Friday with totals varying between 2-4 inches with
isolated higher amounts. Heavy snow is also expected for the high peaks of
the northern Cascades where over a foot of snow is possible. This AR event
should wrap up by this evening when much of the Pacific moisture will have
ran out and the low pressure system will move into the Northern Rockies.
High temperatures for the Northern Plains will rise to 15-20 degrees above
average out ahead of the aforementioned system on Friday. Elevated Fire
Weather risks are in effect for much of Southern Texas, the Texas/Oklahoma
panhandle and southeastern Kansas due to decent winds and dry conditions.

Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php