Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 29 2021 - 12Z Sun Oct 31 2021

...Strong storm system will continue to bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms, including the risk for flooding, to the East...

...Showers and storms, as well as some higher elevation mountain snow,
will move through the Northwest and Northern Rockies...

...Seasonably warm temperatures for much of the High Plains will turn
cooler behind a cold front by Sunday...


The most significant weather story of the short-term forecast period
(Friday through Sunday morning) will be an anomalously strong low-pressure
system moving northward across the eastern half of the country through the
weekend. At the start of the period, a low-pressure center in the eastern
Ohio Valley will continue to slowly meander northward into the interior
Northeast by Sunday, with an occluded front moving northward up the East
Coast. Strong, easterly flow from the Atlantic will continue to funnel
moisture along and ahead of the front leading to widespread heavy rain and
some thunderstorms. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for
portions of eastern West Virginia, southern Pennsylvania, northern
Virginia, the District of Columbia, and much of northern and western
Maryland. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are likely with locally higher
amounts possible, leading to the risk for some scattered instances of
flooding. A Marginal Risk is in place for a broader portion of the
Mid-Alantic northwest to the eastern Great Lakes for forecast rainfall
totals an inch or more.  Meanwhile, the Storm Prediction Center has issued
a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Friday for portions of eastern
Virginia and North Carolina as well as southern Maryland due to the risk
of thunderstorms with some gusty winds and an isolated tornado threat.
Additionally, strong, gusty onshore winds will also lead to some coastal
flooding for the Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic Coast of Virginia
northward to New Jersey through Saturday afternoon. The rain will spread
further northeastward into New England on Saturday, with another Marginal
Risk in place for forecast rainfall amounts again in the 2-4 inch range.
It is also worth noting high temperatures across the South behind the
system will be unseasonably cool on Friday. Highs will only reach the
mid-50s from Arkansas eastward through most of Tennessee, Mississippi, and
Alabama, as well as portions of Georgia. Temperatures will warm a bit more
on Saturday but still remain unseasonably cool.

Another frontal system will move through the Northwest and into the center
of the country. Showers and cooler weather are forecast for the Pacific
Northwest as a cold front moves through on Friday. Higher elevations of
the Northern Rockies may also see some snow showers Saturday as the cold
front continues southeastward. Ahead of the front, seasonably warm
temperatures are expected across portions of the Plains, particularly the
High Plains. The Northern and Central High Plains will see highs in the
60s and lower 70s on Friday, between 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Highs
will cool into the 40s for the Northern High Plains on Saturday while the
Central High Plains remain warm and the Southern High Plains see
temperatures rise as high as the mid-80s. The front will progress
southward into the Southern Plains by Sunday morning, bringing freezing
low temperatures to much of the Northern and Central Plains in its wake.
In addition to the warmer temperatures, conditions are expected to remain
dry ahead of the front across the Plains. The Storm Prediction Center has
highlighted portions of Texas from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward
through the eastern Texas Panhandle for an Elevated fire weather risk on
Friday due to strong, gusty winds and dry conditions.

Elsewhere, generally tranquil and seasonable conditions will be in place.
Temperatures will be around normal for the Midwest and Southwest. Florida
may see some scattered showers and thunderstorms both Friday and Saturday.

Putnam

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php