Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 PM EDT Mon Nov 01 2021

Valid 00Z Tue Nov 02 2021 - 00Z Thu Nov 04 2021

...Accumulating Lake Effect Snows possible across portions of the Great
Lakes...

...Below Average Temperatures on tap for much of the Central to Eastern
U.S., above average Temperatures across the West and Gulf Coast...

...Heavy Rains developing across portions of the Southern Plains on
Wednesday...

A highly amplified mid to upper level flow pattern across much of North
America will deliver a cooler than average start to the month of November
across much of the central to eastern U.S.  High temperatures are expected
to be in the 40s and 50s, 10 to 20 degrees colder than average, across
much of the Plains, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast.  Cold west
northwesterly flow across the Great Lakes will support widespread lake
effect snow and rain showers over the next few days downwind of the Great
Lakes.  The season's first accumulating lake effect snows expected across
portion of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, the northern portion of the
Lower Peninsula of Michigan and in the higher terrain downwind of the
eastern portions of Lakes Erie and Ontario.  Locally heavy snows are
possible with the best chance across portions of the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan where totals of 4 to 6"+ are possible.

While the Central to Eastern U.S. are colder than average over the next
few days, the opposite will be true across areas from the Rockies to the
West coast and along the Gulf Coast.  High temperatures across these
regions expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above average. 

Aside from areas downwind of the Great Lakes, precipitation amounts are
expected to be light Monday night, through Tuesday across much of the
Lower 48.  However, during Wednesday,  there will be an increasing chance
of heavy rains along an north of a slow moving frontal boundary sinking
southward through Texas.  This will bring moderate to heavy rain potential
during Wednesday across central to north Texas, eastern Oklahoma, western
Arkansas and northwest Louisiana.  These regions have had below average
precipitation over the past few weeks, resulting in stream flows below
average.  This should keep the risk of any flooding at a low level across
areas that do receive heavy rains.

Oravec

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php