Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
247 PM EDT Wed Nov 03 2021

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 04 2021 - 00Z Sat Nov 06 2021

...Slow moving cold front to bring heavy rain to portions of the Southern
Texas today...

...Unseasonably cool temperatures to persist across the Central and
Eastern US...

...Strong Western low pressure will bring high winds, rain and higher
elevation snow to the PacNW; while bringing above normal temperatures to
the Intermountain West and Northern Plains by Friday...

A broad surface high pressure system continues to drop further south
across the Midwest dominating nearly all of the lower 48 east of the
Rockies.  Mid-level troughing and cooler Canadian air continues to
progress eastward across the Great Lakes supporting Lake Effect rain and
snows downwind through early Thursday though the strongest plumes and
enhanced risk of snowfall are shutting down today with only light
lingering effects into Thursday morning with Winter Weather Advisories
having been canceled earlier this morning.  As the cold air filters south
across the Southern Plains, the associated cold front and enhanced
moisture both off the Western Gulf of Mexico and mid-level moisture off
the subtropical Pacific will support slow moving and efficient showers
with some thunderstorms across Deep South Texas this afternoon into
overnight hours.  The potential for 1.5-2"/hr rain rates may result in
highly isolated 3+" totals pose a localized risk of flash flooding
resulting in the Weather Prediction Center maintaining a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall.

As the frontal zone slips south into Mexico/Gulf of Mexico, interests turn
back to the unseasonably cool air associated with this broad/dominant high
pressure belt across the Plains to east coast. High temperatures of 15-25
degrees below average will slide from the Ohio Valley/Central Plains to
the Southern Plains into the Deep South and Mid-Atlantic today/tonight and
to the Gulf Coast and Carolinas Thursday into Friday.  Temperatures will
be moderating across the High Plains to the Northern Plains/Upper Great
Lakes by Friday as well as warmer air returns from the approach of
stronger systems originating out of the Pacific over the later portion of
the week.

The first of in a series of low pressure systems are already influencing
the Pacific Northwest coastal regions with strengthening winds and
increasing rainfall potential. A High Wind Warning is currently in affect
for tonight for the Oregon coast where strong gusty winds of 60 to 75 mph
are possible tonight into Thursday morning with some of the southeastern
Oregon Mountain peaks to see similar gusts though surrounding areas the
Willamette valley of 20-35 mph and Northwest California to 40-50 mph
supporting Wind Advisories.  Accompanying the strong winds will be
increased rainfall rainfall particularly for south-southwest facing
temporal rain forests of the same area with hourly rain totals of .5-.75"
possible.  The front will be fast moving, reducing duration but the
potential of 1-2.5" through morning are possible from N California to the
Olympic Peninsula.  As the front shifts eastward into the interior of
WA/OR/N CA, rains will lighten but bring high elevation snow to the
Cascades northern Sierra Nevada of Northeast California) and northern
Rockies.   Persistent light to moderate showers and higher elevation snows
will persist before the approach of the next cold front on Friday morning.
 While not a strong as the initial front, precipitation totals of 2-4" are
possible by mid-day Friday mainly across coastal and Cascades.
Temperatures will be generally 5-10 degrees above normal across much of
the West ahead of these storms, with only normal to slightly below normal
temperatures for highs on/along the coast where rainfall will be highest. 
Though, as the initial storm crosses the higher terrain, southerly winds
and down-slope heating will result in higher anomalies of 15-20 degrees
across the Northern High Plains Thursday bleeding over to Northern Plains
by Friday

Gallina

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php