Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 AM EDT Thu Nov 04 2021

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 04 2021 - 12Z Sat Nov 06 2021

...Series of Pacific storm systems to bring blustery winds, rain, and high
elevation snow to the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Great Basin, and
Northern Rockies...

...Quasi-stationary boundary to deliver heavy rain to portions of Florida
on Friday...

...Unseasonably cool temperatures across the South-Central and Eastern US
to begin bouncing back to normal as warmth from the Western US spreads
east...

A busy couple of days are in store for the Northwest quadrant of the CONUS
as a parade of Pacific storm systems pass through the region, delivering
rain and high elevation snow from the coast to the Rockies. The first,
which is expected to move onshore early this morning, will be accompanied
by high winds with strong gusts that have the potential to reach 60 to 75
mph. These damaging winds are forecast to occur over portions of northern
California, west-central Oregon, and eastern Washington, where scattered
High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are currently in effect. The
relatively moisture-rich cold front associated with this system could
deliver as much as 1-2+" of rain to low lying coastal areas from northern
California to the Olympic Peninsula as well as some heavy snow to the
Washington Cascades. As the front moves further inland throughout the day
light to moderate rain showers and the coincident high elevation snow will
also spread east into the Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies.
Without skipping a beat the second system will reach the coastline Friday
morning, bringing with it another helping of rain and snow. Though
precipitation totals are not expected to be as high as those with the
previous system, a drop in snow levels to around 3000-4000 ft will allow
snow to accumulate at lower elevations throughout the Cascades and the
Olympic Mountains.

In the exact opposite corner of the country a quasi-stationary boundary is
setting up for an extended stay over Florida. Remaining virtually
motionless through Saturday, this boundary will serve as the focus for the
development of heavy rain and thunderstorms, some of which may become
severe and produce damaging wind gusts. Rainfall totals across the state
outside of the Panhandle are expected to fall in the 1-2" range, with
isolated higher amounts possible over the eastern shoreline from Palm
Beach county to the Georgia border. Though soil moisture is low throughout
the peninsula due to recent below average rainfall, isolated instances of
flash flooding will be possible due to a combination of these sizable
rainfall accumulations and high hourly rainfall rates.

Temperature-wise, unseasonably cool weather will persist throughout the
South-Central and Eastern US as surface high pressure remains the dominant
feature in these regions and continues to draw cold air south. The
greatest hit to daily maximum temperatures will be felt in Texas and the
Carolinas, where highs are forecast to sit 20 to 25 degrees below normal,
struggling to escape the 50s and low 60s in Texas and the high 40s and low
50s in the Carolinas. Furthermore, near to below freezing overnight lows
will be possible tonight from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic, where a mixture of Freeze Watches and Warnings as well as
Frost Advisories have been put into effect. In stark contrast to the cold
spell to the east, upper-level ridging out West has allowed temperatures
from the West Coast to the Northern Plains to rise 10 to 20 degrees above
normal. As the ridge progresses eastward on Friday it will spread the warm
weather into the Upper Midwest and Central Plains while also providing
some relief to the Eastern US by pushing out the cold and allowing
temperatures to bounce back closer to average.

Zavadoff

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php