Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
418 PM EDT Thu Nov 04 2021

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 05 2021 - 00Z Sun Nov 07 2021

...More rain, high elevation snow, and blustery winds moving into the
Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies...

...A developing low pressure system expected to bring and increasing
threat of thunderstorms and gusty winds across Florida and along the
southeastern U.S. coast through Saturday...

...First freeze of the season arriving across the interior Deep South,
Tennessee Valley and interior Mid-Atlantic...

More unsettled weather is in store for the northwestern quadrant of the
mainland U.S. as a parade of Pacific storm systems continues to move
onshore, delivering more rain and high elevation snow from the coast to
the Rockies.  The moisture-rich cold fronts associated with these systems
could deliver as much as 1-2+" of rain to low lying coastal areas from
northern California to the Olympic Peninsula as well as some heavy snow to
the Cascades during the next couple of days.  As the moisture moves
further inland, light to moderate rain showers and the coincident high
elevation snow will spread east into the northern Great Basin and northern
Rockies.  A lull in the activities is expected early on Saturday before
the next stronger Pacific system edges closer, bringing with it another
round of soaking rains and mountain snows.  Though precipitation totals
are not expected to be as high as those with the previous system, a drop
in snow levels will allow snow to accumulate at lower elevations
throughout the Cascades and the Olympic Mountains.

In the mean time, a cool high pressure system is forecast to dominate the
weather pattern for much of the eastern two-thirds of the country into the
weekend.  In fact, the first freeze of the season is forecast to continue
for the next couple of mornings across the interior Deep South, Tennessee
Valley and interior Mid-Atlantic.  As the high pressure system remains
nearly stationary across the central and eastern U.S., a low pressure
system is forecast to gradually develop in the Gulf of Mexico near a
stationary front during the next couple of days.  This system will track
east-northeast across the Gulf of Mexico into Friday and then across the
Florida Peninsula Friday night as the storm gradually intensifies.  Much
of Florida will see an increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms
through Friday, with the southern half of the Peninsula possibly seeing
the thunderstorms becoming severe Friday night with heavy downpours and
damaging wind gusts ahead of a dynamic cold front.  The intensifying low
pressure system will likely head northeastward just off the southeastern
U.S. coast later on Saturday with gusty winds and some heavy rain possible
near/along the coast.

In stark contrast to the cold spell in the central and eastern U.S.,
upper-level ridging out West has allowed above normal temperatures to
overspread much of the the western U.S. to the northern Plains with
temperatures topping 10 to 20 degrees above normal.  As the ridge builds
eastward on Friday, warmer weather will spread into the upper Midwest and
central Plains while temperatures moderate back closer to average across
the eastern U.S.

Kong/Zavadoff


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php