Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 PM EST Sun Nov 07 2021

Valid 00Z Mon Nov 08 2021 - 00Z Wed Nov 10 2021

...Powerful Pacific cyclone to deliver heavy rain and mountain snow to
Northern California and the Pacific Northwest...

...Coastal flooding along the Southeast coast to continue into Monday...

...Warmer than normal temperature regime to engulf much of the Central and
Eastern U.S....

The weather pattern the first half of the week is highlighted by a rapidly
strengthening Pacific low pressure system that ushers in copious amounts
of lower elevation rain and mountain snow to Northern California and the
Pacific Northwest. The heaviest rainfall amounts are likely to occur along
the coastal range of Northern California where 2 to 3 inches of rainfall
is anticipated through Tuesday evening. The Shasta and Trinity mountains
may witness heavy rainfall rates atop burn scarred areas, making those
locations more susceptible to flash flooding and debris flows. As a
result, a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been issued for those
"at risk" flash flood areas of Northern California. Meanwhile, crashing
snow levels allows precipitation to fall as snow in the higher elevations
of the Sierra Nevada, the Shasta, Olympic, and Cascade Ranges. Up to a
foot of snow is expected to accumulate along these ranges with totals
exceeding two feet possible in the Olympics, Washington Cascades, and the
tallest portions of the Sierra Nevada and Shastas. Winter Storm Warnings
have been issued for parts of the Shastas ahead of this impending storm
system. As Pacific moisture pushes further inland, measurable snow is also
on tap for the Boise and Sawtooth Mountains of Idaho on Tuesday with
periods of snow eventually reaching the northern Rockies by Tuesday night.
In addition, high winds are also a concern as High Wind Warnings and
Advisories have been posted in Oregon, Northern California, and in far
western Nevada.

East of the Rockies, the weather pattern remains relatively quiet despite
the passage of a weak frontal boundary traversing the Midwest on Monday,
then into the Great Lakes and Southern Plains on Tuesday. Aside from a few
spotty showers, little in the way of precipitation is expected ahead of
and along the front. Off the Southeast coast, a potent storm system
continues to generate large swells that are causing areas of coastal
flooding from the Virginia Tidewater and the Carolina Coast on south to
the eastern coast of Florida. Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories remain
in place into Monday but the storm moves far enough off the coast by
Tuesday for improving beach conditions along the Southeast coast.
Otherwise, the story for much of the East is the return of above normal
temperatures. After several days of chilly conditions where many saw their
first frost and/or freeze of the season, daily temperature departures
around 10 to 20 degrees above normal look to engulf much of the Heartland
on east across the Great Lakes on Monday. Highs in the 60s return to the
Northeast on Monday with some sprinkled in 70 degree readings possible in
the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. The hottest temperatures the first two days
of the week will reside in West Texas where high temps soaring above 80
degrees are likely.

Mullinax


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php