Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EST Wed Nov 10 2021 Valid 12Z Wed Nov 10 2021 - 12Z Fri Nov 12 2021 ...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Pacific Northwest through Thursday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through Thursday morning... ...Rain and higher elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest, and Northern Rockies, Snow for the upper Midwest, starting in earnest on Thursday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Pacific Northwest from Thursday into Friday morning... Today, a front marching out of the Rockies will move to the Upper Midwest and deepen as the storm moves across the Upper Great Lakes by Friday. Rain will develop over parts of the Northern Plains and move into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Wednesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front from parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains. Some of these thunderstorms will become severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. On Thursday into Friday, the severe thunderstorm thread ends. However, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys into the Western Gulf Coast. Additionally, rain moves into the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. By Friday morning, the rain will move into parts of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and the Southeast. Moreover, snow will develop over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley today, yet confined to near the U. S./Canadian border. On Thursday, the snow will march southward over the Northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, upper-level energy will produce snow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies today and rain over the lower elevations of the Great Basin. Light snow showers continue over the Northern Rockies through tonight. In the meantime, moisture from the Pacific will start to stream into the Pacific Northwest. As a result, rain will develop over parts of the Northwest that will become heavier as the day goes on. Appropriately, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northwest through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. The excessive rainfall threat increases on Thursday as more moisture streams into the Northwest. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday into Friday morning. The heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. Furthermore, snow will return to the Northern/Central Rockies overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Ziegenfelder Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php