Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 AM EST Sat Nov 13 2021

Valid 12Z Sat Nov 13 2021 - 12Z Mon Nov 15 2021

...Low pressure formation tonight over New England will likely bring a
round of enhanced rain/wet snow and gusty winds across the region...

...A lull in the active weather today over the Pacific Northwest before
the next wave of heavy rain/snow arrives on Sunday....

...An Alberta clipper will deliver another around of snow and gusty winds
across the northern tier states through the weekend...

Even as the large cyclonic circulation over the Great Lakes weakens and
retreats into Canada, one last piece of upper-level energy rotating around
the back side of the system is interacting with a secondary cold front to
produce an organized band of rain heading toward the Appalachians this
Saturday morning.  The rain is accompanied by temperatures falling into
the 30s together with wind directions shifting to the west as a large cool
air mass over the mid-section of the country moves in behind the cold
front.  By tonight, a low pressure center is forecast to form and
intensify rather quickly over New England while the cold front exits the
East Coast.  Some thunderstorms could form and become strong later today
over southern New England as the low pressure center develops.  In
addition, a burst of precipitation is forecast for interior New England
tonight following the passage of the low center.  The higher elevation
could even see a burst of wet snow together with gusty winds right behind
this intensifying compact storm.

The quick round of rain/wet snow is forecast to depart New England on
Sunday as the compact storm exits into the Canadian Maritimes.  Colder air
will then be ushered across the Great Lakes, leading to the likelihood of
lake-effect snow or mixed precipitation in the lee of the Great Lakes on
Sunday.  Meanwhile, an Alberta clipper is forecast to track across the
northern Plains today and across the Great Lakes on Sunday.  This
quick-moving storm will deliver another around of snow and gusty winds
through these areas, with rain showers farther to the south.  By Monday
morning, the Alberta clipper should be tracking near the Canadian border
of New England while another low pressure system is forecast to form near
the New England coast.  The new system will later take over as the more
dominant system.

Over the Pacific Northwest, a lull in the recent onslaught of heavy rain
is expected for today.  However, the next round of heavy rain is scheduled
to arrive on Sunday ahead of an active warm front coming from the Pacific.
While it appears that this next round of heavy precipitation will be
confined to the northwestern portion of Washington states, the surge of
moisture will be unrelenting into Monday morning.  The higher elevations
of the northern Cascades will likely see heavy snow measured in feet
during the next few days.

The entire western U.S. will remain milder than normal through the
weekend.  Much milder than normal conditions are expected over the
northern High Plains on Monday with developing downslope flow as another
Alberta clipper is forecast to form.

Kong


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php