Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Tue Nov 16 2021

Valid 12Z Tue Nov 16 2021 - 12Z Thu Nov 18 2021

...A deep low pressure system is bringing potentially damaging winds
across the northern Rockies/High Plains today...

...Lake-effect snow/rain downstream of the lower Great Lakes tapers off by
tonight before a warm front spreads rain into the area by late Wednesday...

...Increasing chance of rain moving into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio
Valley Wednesday night to Thursday morning associated with a cold front...

The latest round of heavy rain and mountain snow across western Washington
state is rapidly tapering off as the associated deep low pressure system
moves swiftly through southwestern Canada.  Meanwhile, this intense storm
is expected to trigger extreme downslope winds sustained at 50 to 70 mph
with gusts of 80-100 mph possible today across mountainous terrain of
western Montana.  While off to the east in the High Plains, sustained
winds of 30 to 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph will expand eastward into
western North Dakota today behind a strong cold front.  As the deep low
pressure system continues to track across southern Canada the next couple
of days, winds will remain at elevated levels across the northern Plains
tonight and into Wednesday before slowly subsiding Wednesday night when
the storm weakens and moves farther away.

Precipitation associated with this deep low will initially be modest
across the northern Rockies, and virtually none across the northern
Plains.  Rain chances will finally increase tonight when the cold front
approaches the Midwest.  By Wednesday, a more solid stretch of rain is
expected to develop across the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the Midwest
into the Great Lakes.  By Thursday morning, rain chances are forecast to
increase further across the Tennessee to Ohio Valley as the cold front
continues to push eastward.

Meanwhile, widespread above normal temperatures across much of the Plains
today will spread eastward toward the eastern U.S. for the next couple of
days ahead of the cold front.  The cold air over the eastern U.S. will
gradually moderate as a warm front approaches.  Lingering lake-effect
snow/rain downstream of the lower Great Lakes should taper off by tonight
before the warm front spreads rain into the area by late Wednesday.  In
contrast, much colder air will expand quickly through the northwestern
U.S. before plunging into the central and southern Plains by Thursday
morning.

Kong


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php