Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 PM EST Tue Nov 16 2021

Valid 00Z Wed Nov 17 2021 - 00Z Fri Nov 19 2021

...A deep low center over southern Canada will continue to produce strong
and locally damaging winds over portions of the northern Rockies and
northern Plains...

...Warm temperatures along with windy, dry conditions will result in
elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns over the High Plains
through midweek...

...A cold front will bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms into the
eastern U.S. Wednesday night through Thursday...

A very strong area of low pressure crossing southern Canada will gradually
weaken as it moves off to the east over the next couple of days, but will
still be capable of producing strong and locally damaging winds across
portions of the northern Rockies and northern Plains going through tonight
and Wednesday. Winds across these areas may still reach as high as 60 to
70 mph, with locally stronger gusts over the higher peaks of the northern
Rockies. The winds should gradually begin to subside by Wednesday night as
strong high pressure begins to nose over the region.

The same area of low pressure crossing southern Canada will also allow for
a strong cold front to advance east and south across the Plains and the
Midwest going through early Thursday. Warm temperatures will be pooled out
ahead of the front initially which coupled with windy and dry conditions
should lead to elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns. The
greatest wildfire threat will generally be over the High Plains going
through Wednesday, but colder temperatures and diminishing winds
thereafter should reduce this threat.

Warm temperatures ahead of this cold front will spread from the Plains
east through the lower/middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley on
Wednesday and reach the eastern seaboard on Thursday. High temperatures
for Wednesday and Thursday will be locally as much as 20 degrees above
normal, with temperatures returning to slightly below normal behind the
cold front.

Increasing southerly flow ahead of this front will allow moisture to
return north from the Gulf of Mexico and this will allow for a broken axis
of showers and thunderstorms to develop along the front as it moves
through the eastern U.S. Some post frontal lake-effect rain and snow
shower activity is expected to develop over the Great Lakes region.

Elsewhere, there will be a set-up for some moist easterly flow coming in
off the Atlantic Ocean for south Florida going through Thursday which will
bring a threat of showers and perhaps some locally heavy rainfall to
coastal areas of southeast Florida. Meanwhile, a new storm system will be
approaching the Pacific Northwest by late Thursday, and this will bring a
new threat of rain and higher elevation snowfall here as moisture streams
inland.

Orrison

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php