Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EST Wed Nov 24 2021

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 25 2021 - 00Z Sat Nov 27 2021

...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains through Thanksgiving morning...

...Snow for the Upper Great Lakes into the higher elevations of New
England through Friday evening...

...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over the Western Gulf
Coast and parts of the Pacific Northwest from Thanksgiving into Friday
morning...

...Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Central/Southern High
Plains...

A front extending from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to Southern
Plain will move eastward off the East Coast and southward off most of the
Gulf Coast by Friday evening. However, moisture from the Western Gulf of
Mexico will stream northward ahead of the front over parts of the Southern
Plains into Thanksgiving evening. As a result, rain will develop along the
front late Wednesday night from parts of Michigan's Lower Peninsula to
Arkansas.  Showers and thunderstorms will also develop along and ahead of
the front over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on
early Thanksgiving morning into the evening and retreat to the Western
Gulf Coast overnight Thanksgiving. The rain associated with the
thunderstorms will be heavy at times. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains
through Thanksgiving morning.  The associated heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain.

Furthermore, light snow will develop over the Upper Great Lakes overnight
Wednesday and expand over Michigan's Lower Peninsula on Thanksgiving.  As
the system moves eastward overnight Thanksgiving, light snow will develop
over the Lower Great Lakes and into the Central Appalachians, then
expanding into the higher elevations of New England by Friday morning.
Additionally, the snowfall amounts will be higher near the Lakes and the
snow will end over the Upper Great Lakes by Friday evening. The snow will
result in reduced visibility and hazardous driving conditions.

Meanwhile, the strong flow off the Gulf of Mexico will produce areas of
rain, heavy at times over the Western Gulf Coast on Thanksgiving through
Friday morning.  Additionally, onshore flow off the Pacific ahead of the
next system to impact the Pacific Northwest will produce rain over parts
of the Northwest, which will be heavy at times.  Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Pacific
Northwest and the Western Gulf Coast Thanksgiving through Friday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Elsewhere, much of the Southern California Coast is under Red Flag
Warnings through Friday due to ongoing Santa Ana winds. In addition, the
Storm Prediction Center has issued Critical Risk for fire weather
conditions through Friday for Southern California.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php