Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 AM EST Fri Nov 26 2021

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 26 2021 - 12Z Sun Nov 28 2021

...Storm system to produce heavy snow and gusty winds across portions of
the Interior Northeast and Northern New England through Saturday...

...Atmospheric River to generate moderate-to-heavy rainfall in the Pacific
Northwest on Saturday...

...Strong Santa Ana wind event to cause threatening fire weather
conditions and destructive wind gusts through the end of the week...

A pair of succeeding low pressure systems will bring wintry weather and
gusty winds to the Great Lakes over the next couple of days. The first in
this series of systems is currently underway and is forecast to end by
Saturday morning. Winds will continue on the backside of this system,
which means that blowing snow may become a hazard into tonight. Lake
effect and orographic enhancement over the interior Northeast may
contribute to snow totals reaching between 4-8 inches with isolated higher
amounts when all is said and done. The highest snowfall totals are
forecast for portions of the Adirondacks and northern New England. An
Alberta Clipper is likely to arrive over the Upper Great Lakes by Saturday
night, bringing with it the chance for light snowfall to the region
through Sunday. Winter Storm Watches, Warnings and Winter Weather
Advisories are in effect for portions of upstate northern New York through
northern New England.

In the West, as one Atmospheric River event winds down today, another
round of heavy rain arrives tomorrow. This next Atmospheric River event is
expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rain across the
Olympics and northern Cascades beginning Saturday afternoon, with locally
higher amounts possible. Given the recent periods of heavy rainfall,
flooding and excessive runoff will undoubtedly be a concern once again.
Meanwhile, a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico will produce light
to moderate rainfall for much of coastal/central Texas and the Lower
Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Most of this precipitation is likely to
move offshore by Sunday.

In contrast to their neighbors in the Northwest, residents in Southern
California are dealing with dry Santa Ana winds. High Wind Warnings have
been posted along the mountain ranges, as well as coastal regions.
Widespread wind gusts of 35 to 60 mph are expected with damaging gusts up
to 75 mph possible in the mountains and foothills. In addition,
dangerously low humidity levels support a hazardous environment for fire
weather conditions. Red Flag Warnings and a Critical Risk for hazardous
fire weather conditions, issued by the Storm Prediction Center, were
issued for much of the Southern California mountains and adjacent
foothills. The Santa Ana wind event this should continue weakening today,
but an Elevated Risk for favorable fire weather conditions remains in
effect through this evening. Temperature-wise, a cold front is set to
usher in yet another shot of cold Canadian air across the East and
portions of the Southern Plains today. December-like temperatures look to
stick around in the Mid-Atlantic and New England on Saturday. Meanwhile, a
building upper-level ridge over the western third of the Lower 48 means
temperatures will warm-up incrementally each day through the weekend.

Kebede/Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php