Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EST Tue Nov 30 2021

Valid 12Z Tue Nov 30 2021 - 12Z Thu Dec 02 2021

...Widespread record breaking temperatures likely from Northwest into
Great Plains through Thursday; Elevated Fire Weather Risk for southern
California...

...Light to moderate rain showers to return over portions of the Pacific
Northwest today into Wednesday morning...

...Light rain and snow showers over portions of the Great Lakes and
Northeast through Thursday...

High pressure dominance in the West will contribute to a record breaking
start to our December with respect to temperatures. Negligible
precipitation over the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes/Northeast will
continue over the next few days. A pair of low pressure systems traversing
southern Canada will produce light to isolated moderate snow downwind of
the Great Lakes and interior Northeast over the next couple of days.
General totals are forecast to remain below a couple inches, but areas
downwind of Lake Ontario may see upwards of 3-6 inches through Thursday
morning. Some rain may get mixed in as the warm front associated with the
second, more organized system moves into the Great Lakes on Wednesday
night. Some rain shower activity may develop as far south as the Ohio
Valley and Central Appalachians as the quasi-stationary front sags into
the area on Wednesday morning. An approaching system will bring light to
moderate rain showers to the Pacific Northwest today. No mountain snow is
expected from this event as temperatures will remain too warm for such
precipitation well into the higher elevations.

Upper-level ridging across the West will contribute to above average
temperatures in the region today. Some high temperature records may be
broken in southern California as a result. Elevated Fire Weather risk is
in effect for this region through Wednesday as a cut-off low over Baja
continues to increase northeasterly winds and dry conditions in the area.
A strengthening and expansion of the upper-ridge into the Rockies on
Wednesday will contribute to the emergence of anomalous warmth for much of
the West. Low temperatures tonight will be warm enough to potentially
break records throughout the Northwest, where some areas may see lows as
warm as 25-30 degrees above average. Highs on Wednesday will be between
25-30 degrees above average for much of the Northern/Central Plains.
Widespread high temperature records may be broken over portions of the
Northwest, Northern/Central Plains and across California that day, while
warm air creeps into the Eastern third of the country as well. The
expansion of the ridge into the Great Plains on Wednesday night into
Thursday will see night time low records potentially broken across the
Northern Rockies, down through the Front Range and into the
Northern/Central Rockies. We'll see our greatest chance for widespread
high temperature records being set this Thursday across the
Central/Southern Plains where high temperatures could reach as high as 40
degrees above average. Fortunately, this only means that temperatures will
peak in the 60s and 70s, so nothing too uncomfortable is expected.

Kebede

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php