Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 AM EST Fri Dec 03 2021

Valid 12Z Fri Dec 03 2021 - 12Z Sun Dec 05 2021

...Record breaking warmth continues from the Southeast to the Southern
Plains today, with widespread above average temperatures lingering
throughout much of the Nation this weekend...

...Heavy snow to impact portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
beginning Saturday morning...

The tranquil, dry, and warm weather pattern in place over the last few
days is expected to remain over much of the Lower 48 today before cooler
and more active weather enters this weekend. A potent ridge of high
pressure will influence above average temperatures for nearly the entire
Nation over the next few days, with the Northeast and Northwest being the
only exceptions. A weak cold front bisecting the eastern U.S. will allow
for record breaking warmth to be confined to the southern third of the
country to end the workweek. Highs into the 70s and low 80s will be found
throughout the Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley, Southern Plains, as
well as the Southwest. Slightly cooler, but still well above average
temperatures are forecast to remain across this region and extend into the
Midwest this weekend. For the Northeast, cold and blustery northwest winds
will keep temperatures below average for early December. As a result,
consistent lake effect snow showers are possible through Sunday morning
with some enhancement possible on Saturday as a low pressure system passes
just to the north. A few inches of snowfall are most likely across the
eastern U.P. of Michigan and the Tug Hill Plateau of New York.

Meanwhile, more widespread and impactful winter weather is likely
throughout the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest to kick off the first
weekend of December. An impulse of upper level energy entering the
Northwest on Saturday combined with an arctic airmass located just north
of the U.S.-Canada border will allow for an area of snowfall to develop
over the Northern High Plains on Saturday morning. Snow is also likely
across the far Northern Rockies and the Washington Cascades as moisture
enters from the Pacific. By Saturday night into Sunday morning, a
developing area of low pressure over central Montana is expected to move
east with the associated precipitation, leading to a swath of
moderate-to-heavy snow from northeast Montana to northern Minnesota.
Widespread snowfall amounts greater than 5 inches is likely across the
northern half of North Dakota, mainly north of Interstate 94. This amount
of snowfall and the potential for periods of heavy snow may lead to
difficult travel conditions. Winter Storm Watches have been issued.

Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php