Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 PM EST Fri Dec 03 2021

Valid 00Z Sat Dec 04 2021 - 00Z Mon Dec 06 2021

...Record breaking warmth continues from the Southeast to the Southern
Plains today, with widespread above average temperatures lingering
throughout much of the Nation this weekend...

...Heavy snow to impact portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
beginning Saturday morning...

The tranquil, dry, and warm weather pattern in place over the last few
days is expected to linger over much of the Lower 48 this afternoon before
cooler and more active weather enters the picture this weekend. A potent
ridge of high pressure will be responsible for an expansive area of above
average temperatures engulfing nearly the entire Nation over the weekend,
with the Northeast and Northwest being the only exceptions. A weak cold
front bisecting the eastern U.S. will allow for record breaking warmth to
be confined to the southern third of the country to end the workweek.
Highs into the 70s and low 80s will be common throughout the Southeast,
Lower Mississippi Valley, Southern Plains, and Southwest. Slightly cooler,
but still well above average temperatures are forecast to extend into the
Midwest this weekend. For New England, cold and blustery northwest winds
force temperatures to stay below average for early December. In addition,
persistent lake effect snow showers are possible through Sunday morning
with some enhancement possible on Saturday as a low pressure system passes
just to the north. A few inches of snowfall are most likely across the
eastern U.P. of Michigan and the Tug Hill Plateau of New York.

Meanwhile, more widespread and impactful winter weather is likely
throughout the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest to kick off the first
weekend of December. An upper level disturbance entering the Northwest on
Saturday combined with an arctic airmass located just north of the
U.S.-Canada border allows for an area of snowfall to develop over the
Northern High Plains Saturday morning. Snow is also likely across the far
Northern Rockies and the Washington Cascades as a stream of moisture 
arrives from the Pacific. By Saturday night into Sunday morning, a
developing area of low pressure over central Montana is expected to move
east with the associated precipitation, leading to a swath of
moderate-to-heavy snow from northeast Montana to northern Minnesota.
Widespread snowfall amounts greater than 6 inches is likely across the
northern half of North Dakota (mainly north of Interstate 94), and
northern Minnesota. These snowfall totals and the potential for periods of
heavy snow will lead to hazardous travel conditions. The swath of heavy
snow reaches the Upper Great Lakes by Sunday evening, resulting in
potentially 6 inches or more of snowfall in portions of Michigan's Upper
Peninsula Sunday night.

Snell/Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php