Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 PM EST Mon Dec 06 2021

Valid 00Z Tue Dec 07 2021 - 00Z Thu Dec 09 2021

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys into parts of the Southeast through
Tuesday morning...

... There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys into parts of the Western Gulf Coast
through Tuesday morning...

...Lake effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes and light snow over
parts of the Northeast...

A strong front over parts of the Central Gulf Coast into the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast will move off the East Coast by Tuesday morning.
The system will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Western Gulf Coast into the Southeast and Southern Appalachians;
some of the thunderstorms will be severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi
and Tennessee Valleys into parts of the Southeast through Tuesday morning.
 The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat for
hail.

Moreover, some of the thunderstorms will have heavy rain. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys into parts of the Western Gulf
Coast through Tuesday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain. On Tuesday, rain over the Mid-Atlantic will come
to an end. However, waves of low pressure along the front over the Gulf
Coast Region will produce showers and thunderstorms near the Gulf Coast on
Wednesday into Thursday morning, as rain develops along the front over the
Southeast on Wednesday, ending on Thursday.

Meanwhile, rain changing to snow will move across the Northeast with the
front, then move off the Northeast Coast by Tuesday morning. In the wake
of the system over the Northeast, lake effect snow will develop downwind
from the Great Lakes through Tuesday morning.  Upperâ€level energy moving
across the Great Lakes into the Northeast on Wednesday into Thursday
morning will produce light snow over the country's northeast corner. The
snow and wind will result in reduced visibilities and hazardous driving
conditions.

Furthermore, a complicated area of upper-level energy and a surface low
and associated front will aid in producing rain and higher elevation snow
over the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies on Monday evening.
Overnight Monday, the rain and higher elevation snow will move southward
into California and the Great Basin into parts of the Central Rockies by
Tuesday evening.  On Tuesday, rain will move farther south into Southern
California by Tuesday evening and into parts of the Southwest.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php