Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 309 PM EST Sat Jan 01 2022 Valid 00Z Sun Jan 02 2022 - 00Z Tue Jan 04 2022 ...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and parts of the Central Appalachians through Sunday morning... ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and parts of the Southeast through Sunday morning... ...Snow over the Great Lakes to Northern New England through Sunday morning; Pockets of freezing rain over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Northeast through Sunday morning... ...Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average for the Northern Intermountain Region, Great Basin, and Southwest and over the Southern Plains to the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, while temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees above average from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... A front extending from the Northeast southwestward to the Southern Plains will slowly move eastward off the East Coast by Monday. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average for the Northern Intermountain Region, Great Basin, and Southwest and over the Southern Plains to the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on the north and western sides of the boundary. East and south of the front, temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees above average from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic through Sunday evening. Moisture will pool along the boundary over the eastern third of the country, adding in the development of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front from the Ohio Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Due to the dynamics of the severe thunderstorms, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and parts of the Southeast through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there is a 10% or greater probability of EF2-EF5 over parts of the Tennessee Valley and parts of the Southeast. Furthermore, heavy rain will be associated with these thunderstorms. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and parts of the Central Appalachians through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers through Sunday morning. Additional hazards lay on the north side of the front as snow will develop over the Great Lakes to Northern New England through Sunday morning. In addition, there will be areas of rain/freezing rain along the rain/snow line from parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Northeast through Sunday morning. The severe thunderstorm threat will diminish to a Marginal Risk over the Southeast on Sunday into Monday morning. Similarly, the threat of excessive rainfall will also decrease on Sunday as the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southeast through Monday morning. However, the associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. The snow over the Northeast ends by Monday morning. Furthermore, as the front moves off the Mid-Atlantic, snow will develop over parts of the Tennessee Valley, Central Appalachians, and on parts of the Piedmont on Monday. The snow will be light with minor accumulations. However, with any form of snow or ice, traveling will be more dangerous even with the littlest accumulations. The rain and snow will end over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast by Monday evening. Meanwhile, snow over parts of the Southern/Central Rockies onto the Southern/Central Plains will wind down overnight Saturday. On Sunday, a front will begin to come onshore over the Pacific Northwest, moving inland to parts of the Northern Intermountain Region by Monday. Rain and higher elevation snow will develop over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Sunday afternoon into evening. Coastal rain and higher elevation snow will develop over parts of Northern California on Monday. The Cascades will get heavy snow. Ziegenfelder Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php