Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EST Sun Jan 02 2022

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 03 2022 - 00Z Wed Jan 05 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of North
Carolina through Monday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast, southern Mid-Atlantic, and the Central Gulf Coast through
Monday morning...

...Heavy Snow for the Central/Southern Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic
on Monday; Heavy Snow for the Cascades...

...Freeze Warnings for the Western/Central Gulf Coast through Monday
morning...

On Sunday evening, a wave of low pressure developing over the Southeast
will move northeastward off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Monday afternoon. 
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the associated
front from the Mid-Atlantic to parts of the Central Gulf Coast and
Southeast.  Some of these thunderstorms will be severe.  Therefore, the
SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast, southern Mid-Atlantic, and the Central Gulf Coast through
Monday morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Moisture will pool along the boundary over the Southeast and southern
Mid-Atlantic will aid in the development of heavy rain with the showers
and thunderstorms over the region.  Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of North Carolina through Monday
morning.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable through Sunday morning.  Furthermore, there are Freeze Warnings
for the Western/Central Gulf Coast through Monday morning.

On Monday, the severe thunderstorm threat will continue over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic.  Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Monday
into late Monday afternoon.  The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, a
few tornadoes, and minimal risk for hail.  However, severe thunderstorms
will not be the only threat on Monday.  In addition, significant winter
weather will impact the Central/Southern Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic
on Monday.  On Monday, heavy snow will develop over parts of
Central/Southern Appalachians, Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula, with
up to six inches of snow.  The snow will result in reduced visibility and
hazardous driving conditions.  On Monday, the threat for excessive
rainfall will be marginal over portions of southeast Virginia and
northeast North Carolina.  Light snow will also move into parts of the
Northeast on Monday.  The rain and snow will end overnight Monday, with
the Cape Cod area ending by Tuesday morning.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy and a front will move onshore over the
Pacific Northwest overnight Sunday.  As a result, rain and higher
elevation snow will develop over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Sunday
evening into Monday.  Coastal rain and higher elevation snow will develop
over parts of Northern California on Monday.  The snow will move inland
over the Northern Intermountain Region into parts of the Northern Rockies
by Tuesday morning, while the coastal rain and snow will continue over the
Northwest through Tuesday.  The Cascades will get heavy snow during this
period.

A front moving southward out of Central Canada overnight Sunday will move
along the Northern Tier States into the Upper Great Lakes by Monday
afternoon into evening.  A wave of low pressure will develop over the
Northern High Plains on Monday evening and move southeastward to the
Middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday evening.  The wave of low pressure
will aid in producing light snow over parts of the Northern Plains and
Upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as light snow develops over parts of
the Upper Great Lakes.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php