Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
159 AM EST Mon Jan 03 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 03 2022 - 12Z Wed Jan 05 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over much of coastal
North Carolina today...

...Heavy Snow for parts of the Central/Southern Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic on today; Heavy Snow for the Cascades and northern Sierra...

...Freeze Warnings from south Texas to the Western/Central Gulf Coast
through this morning; Critical Fire Weather risk for a portion of eastern
New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle on Tuesday...

A dynamic low pressure system will be the fuel for significant weather
impacts across parts of the Southeast coast and Mid-Atlantic over the next
day or so. A cold front associated with the deepening area of low pressure
will be the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
Carolinas and down into Florida today. A Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms is in effect for much of coastal North Carolina today as
Gulf moisture streams into the region from the south and interacts with
the approaching cold front from the west. Damaging winds and a few
tornadoes appear to be the main concerns with this severe weather threat.
Rain will changeover to snow across much of the Central/Southern
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic this morning as temperatures fall below
freezing. Generally, a swath of between 4-8 inches of snow is possible
from the Southern Appalachians through Washington DC and into southern New
Jersey by this evening. The heaviest snow is likely to fall right after
the transition from rain this morning, which will make for a tricky
commute to work.

Meanwhile, the active period continues for the Pacific Northwest as a
series of low pressure systems bring rain and heavy snow to the region.
The first system will spread rain across the low elevations of the Pacific
Northwest and northern California over the next couple of days. The
heaviest rainfall is likely to occur over central and southwestern Oregon
down into northwestern California where between 3-6 inches may fall. Heavy
snow is forecast to impact the Cascades as well, where between 2-4 feet of
snow is expected over the next couple of days. The second system will
spread snow into the Northern Rockies and northern Sierra by Tuesday,
where several inches to over a foot is possible. Temperatures are expected
to drop precipitously across northern Montana and North Dakota beginning
Monday night as a strong cold front descends into the lower 48 from
southern Canada. This frigid airmass will plunge high temperatures into
the single digits for much of the Northern Plains and foothills of the
Northern Rockies on Tuesday, before sinking south across the rest of the
plains and Mississippi Valley over the subsequent days. There's potential
for a winter storm to impact parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
Tuesday night into Wednesday, where between 3-6 inches of snowfall are
possible.

High pressure, currently plopped over the Southern Plains, will be
responsible for freezing temperatures across south Texas and the
Western/Central Gulf coast this morning. Temperatures are forecast to be
anywhere between the mid 20s to the low 30s for these areas before warming
up into the 50s later today. Increased winds, thanks to an approaching
deep low pressure system from the north, and falling dew points will
contribute to the potential for fire weather across portions of eastern
New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle on Tuesday. A Critical Risk of Fire
Weather is in effect as a result.

Kebede

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php