Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 AM EST Tue Jan 04 2022

Valid 12Z Tue Jan 04 2022 - 12Z Thu Jan 06 2022

...Heavy snow for the Cascades, Northern/Central Rockies and Intermountain
West through Wednesday...

...Deepening winter storm to produce heavy snowfall over parts of The
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes beginning today...

...Cold air pours down into Great Plains through mid-week; Critical Risk
of Fire Weather for parts of Southern Plains today...

...Potentially disruptive winter weather to impact parts of the Tennessee
Valley on Thursday...

Persistent upper-level troughing and the shortwave energy that rides along
it in the West will be the impetus for heavy snow across the Northwest
mountains over the next few days. Moist Pacific air will stream into the
Northwest and interact with surface fronts draped across the region today
leading to heavy snow potential for the Cascades, Northern/Central Rockies
and Intermountain West. This steady stream of moisture will allow for this
heavy snow threat to spread out over the course of a few days. An
organized area of low pressure will emerge over the Pacific Northwest on
Wednesday leading to more snowfall for the Cascades and Olympics.
Generally, between 2-4 feet of snow can be expected for the Cascades down
through the Central Rockies by Wednesday night. Low elevation showers,
with locally heavy rainfall, will also impact portions of the
Oregon/northern California coast today before the next system shifts the
focus for precipitation into northern Oregon and Washington on Wednesday.

A low pressure system will eject from the Northern Rockies today and begin
strengthening almost immediately. This system will spread snow and gusty
winds across parts of the Upper Midwest tonight before spreading into the
Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. Anywhere between 4-8 inches of
snow can be expected across the Upper Midwest while parts of the Upper
Great Lakes may see higher totals closer to a foot by Thursday morning.
The cold front associated with this system will fly across the Great
Plains from north to south over the next couple of days, ushering in a
very cold airmass on its backside. An area of low pressure will develop
once the aforementioned front arrives along the central Gulf coast on
Thursday. This low pressure will pull Gulf moisture into the region in the
form of showers and isolated thunderstorms while spreading snowfall over
parts of the Tennessee Valley. Highs over parts of the Northern/Central
Plains on Wednesday will be between 25-40 degrees below normal with highs
over central and eastern Montana peaking between -5 to -15 degrees. Dry
conditions caused by downsloping and strong winds generated by a lee
trough and mid-level jet will contribute to a Critical Risk of fire
weather today over parts of eastern New Mexico and the Texas panhandle.

Kebede

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php