Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 AM EST Sat Jan 08 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Jan 08 2022 - 12Z Mon Jan 10 2022

...Light freezing rain to spread across the Midwest today before entering
the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday...

...Isolated severe thunderstorms and periods of heavy rain possible over
the next few days from East Texas to the Tennessee Valley...

...Strong cold front to bring well below average temperatures, gusty
winds, and blowing snow across the northern tier this weekend...

The main weather system to track this weekend will be a strong cold front
swinging into the central U.S. today and leading to an area of
precipitation to extend from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Midwest.
Cold air at the surface will allow for light freezing rain/drizzle to
overspread the Ozarks of Arkansas and Missouri this morning before
expanding into Illinois and Indiana by this afternoon into the early
evening hours. Ice accretion is expected to remain under a tenth of an
inch, but even a glaze of freezing rain can become dangerous on untreated
surfaces. By Sunday morning, showers are forecast to reach into the
Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic, where fresh snowfall and a cold
airmass remains in place. This will lead to atmospheric conditions
conducive for widespread freezing rain. Luckily, temperatures should warm
to near or above freezing by the afternoon hours for the I-95 corridor.
However, subfreezing temperatures will remain stubborn across the Interior
Northeast. Total ice accretion may add up to over a tenth of an inch
throughout central Pennsylvania, as well as lower New York State and
western Massachusetts/Connecticut. Residents in the aforementioned regions
are urged to double check road conditions and the current forecast before
traveling, as well as taking extra precautions where roads may become
slick.

As the approaching cold front reaches the central and southern Plains,
warm southerly flow out of the Gulf of Mexico will allow for numerous
showers and thunderstorms to develop from East Texas to the Tennessee and
Lower Ohio valleys. Isolated thunderstorms could turn severe from the
Upper Texas Coast to northeast Arkansas today, with damaging wind gusts,
large hail, and a marginal threat for tornadoes potentially affecting the
region. Scattered instances of heavy rain are also possible and could lead
to isolated flash flood concerns from East Texas to central Kentucky.
Showers and thunderstorms will be slow to exit the Mid-South and finally
shift into the Southeast by Sunday night, but not before dropping around 1
to 3 inches of rain.

Winter looks to keep a tight grip on the northern tier this weekend as a
fresh surge of arctic air drops into the Northern Plains today and enters
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Sunday. Low temperatures are expected to
remain below zero with blustery winds making it feel much colder. These
winds combined with a healthy snowpack will lead to blowing snow, which
can create low visibility and dangerous travel conditions. Winter Weather
Advisories have been issued throughout North Dakota, northeast South
Dakota, and western Minnesota to highlight the concern. Elsewhere, much
quieter weather is in store for the western U.S. and Rockies compared to
the last several days. A few pockets of light snow found in the high
terrain of western Colorado is the only notable precipitation forecast
through early Monday.

Snell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php