Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EST Sun Jan 09 2022

Valid 12Z Sun Jan 09 2022 - 12Z Tue Jan 11 2022

...Troublesome freezing rain to spread across parts of the northern
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today...

...Heavy rain possible across parts of the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee
Valleys and Southern Appalachians to end the weekend, while isolated
severe thunderstorms may impact the Central Gulf Coast States...

...Bitter cold temperatures located throughout the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest to extend into the Great Lakes today and Northeast by
Monday...

As a potent cold front continues to push across the Midwest this morning,
widespread shower activity is found from the Lower Mississippi Valley to
the Lower Great Lakes. Rain is expected to enter the Northeast early this
morning, where surface temperatures remain below freezing. This will
create conditions conducive for freezing rain to impact areas from the
central Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic to Interior sections of the
Northeast and New England. Light ice accretion below a tenth of an inch is
expected for most places, with greater potential for up to a quarter of an
inch found from central Pennsylvania to southern Vermont. Meanwhile, a
light mixture of sleet and snow is possible across northern New England.
Winter Weather Advisories have been issued in order to highlight the
potential weather hazards. Residents in this region are urged to check the
latest forecast and road conditions before traveling. Even a glaze of ice
can create dangerous situations on roadways and walkways.

Farther south, the aforementioned cold front is expected to clash with a
warm and moist airmass in place over the Deep South. Widespread rain
showers and scattered thunderstorms will impact parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valley and Southeast today, before the cold front and most
leftover precipitation exit the U.S. early Monday morning. Isolated
instances of flash flooding are possible throughout the Lower Mississippi
Valley this morning and Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians by this
afternoon as localized rainfall totals potentially add up to as much as 2
inches. A slim chance for severe weather also exists for the Central Gulf
Coast States between Louisiana and central Georgia today. Isolated
tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible as
thunderstorms develop along and ahead of the approaching cold front.

A large arctic high pressure system building across the north-central U.S.
is partially responsible for a repository of cold air found throughout the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. With blustery winds added to the
equation, dangerously cold wind chills are found in this region as well.
Wind Chill Warnings are in effect for north-central North Dakota and far
northeast Montana, with Wind Chill Advisories extending from north-central
Montana to northern Wisconsin. Here, wind chills this morning may reach as
low as minus 40 degrees and could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as
little as 10 minutes. Bitter temperatures are expected to expand into the
Great Lakes today behind the aforementioned cold front and reach into the
Northeast on Monday. Low temperatures in these regions are forecast to
reach into the single digits, with subzero readings likely over the
Interior Northeast and New England on Tuesday morning. The cold weather
pattern and strong west-northwesterly winds will lead to atmospheric
conditions ripe for heavy lake effect snow downwind of Lake Superior and
Lake Ontario. Parts of the U.P. of Michigan and Tug Hill Plateau of New
York may experience localized snowfall totals over a foot by Tuesday
morning.

Elsewhere, quiet weather and a warming trend will be found throughout the
Great Plains leading into the beginning of the workweek. Otherwise, dry
conditions are expected for much of the western U.S. outside of the
Pacific Northwest as light precipitation enters on Monday.

Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php