Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 10 2022 - 12Z Wed Jan 12 2022

...Dangerous cold located from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast, with
heavy lake effect snow likely downwind of the Great Lakes...

...Heavy rain to return to portions of western Washington over the next
few days...

Behind a potent cold front that has exited into the eastern Atlantic
Ocean, arctic air is expected to continue rushing into the Northeast this
morning. This pocket of cold air extends westward and throughout much of
the northern tier, where dangerously cold wind chills will remain across
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today before more bearable temperatures
enter on Tuesday. With wind chills expected to drop well below zero (as
low as minus 40 in spots), Wind Chill Warnings and Wind Chill Advisories
currently span twelve states throughout the northern tier from far
northeast Montana to northern Maine. Temperatures this cold can lead to
frostbite on exposed skin in as little as ten minutes. For much of the
Northeast and New England, these frigid temperatures will remain locked
over the region into Wednesday morning as a strong high pressure system
slowly swings over the eastern United States. Meanwhile, in association
with cold west-northwesterly winds, lake effect snow is likely downwind of
the Great Lakes over the next few days. Snow could be particularly heavy
at times under very narrow snowbands throughout the eastern U.P. of
Michigan, the Tug Hill Plateau of New York State, as well as far western
New York and northwest Pennsylvania. The heaviest snow is expected across
the Tug Hill, where over a foot of snow is possible. Winter Storm
Warnings, Lake Effect Snow Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories are in
effect.

For the Pacific Northwest, active weather is forecast to return to parts
of Washington after a brief lull in precipitation this past weekend.
Shower activity is expected to swing into western Washington today ahead
of an approaching frontal system located over the eastern Pacific. Periods
of heavier rain will then enter the region on Tuesday, which could spawn
flooding concerns. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for
Tuesday across the Olympic Peninsula, where several inches of rain falling
on saturated terrain could produce rapid runoff, river flooding, and a
risk of landslides. East of the Cascades, pockets of freezing rain are
possible on Tuesday throughout the Columbia Basin.

Elsewhere, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may impact
portions of the Florida Peninsula today as a cold front pushes southward.
With strong northeast winds found behind the front on Tuesday, onshore
flow could lead to additional showers across southeast sections of the
Sunshine State on Tuesday. For the central U.S., dry weather will be easy
to find as much of the Lower 48 remains under the influence of high
pressure. A warming trend will also commence this week as highs soar above
average across the Great Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php