Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EST Tue Jan 11 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 12 2022 - 00Z Fri Jan 14 2022

...Bitter cold in the Northeast through early Wednesday; milder regime
begins to expand across much of the Lower 48...

...Heavy rain may lead to flooding across parts of western Washington
through Thursday...

...Canadian storm system to bring next round of accumulating snowfall to
the North Central U.S. Thursday night into Friday...

High pressure remains in control of the eastern U.S. this evening with
another cold night in store from Georgia on north to New England.
Wednesday morning lows plummeting below zero are expected in northern New
England while much of the Mid-Atlantic drops into the teens. As high
pressure slides off the East Coast on Wednesday, southerly flow arriving
in the Mid-South will prompt the arrival of milder temperatures throughout
the Mississippi Valley on east to the Appalachians. That same milder
air-mass is forecast to reach the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by Thursday.
In the Nation's Heartland, temperatures will remain seasonally warm with
widespread 50s and 60s for highs in the High Plains Wednesday. By
Thursday, high temps in South Texas are expected to soar into the 70s.
Meanwhile, a passing frontal boundary may trigger spotty rain and snow
showers on Thursday across the Great Lakes and points east to the
Northeast and central Appalachians. Farther south, scattered showers and
thunderstorms may form over Florida early Thursday as an upper level
disturbance approaches from the west and spawns an area of low pressure
near the northern Bahamas.

The wettest conditions over the next couple days continues to reside in
the waterlogged Pacific Northwest. Additional rounds of precipiation
(primarily in the form of rain) have arrived in western Washington and
will persist into Wednesday morning. This is due to an area of low
pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean that is funneling a stream of
moisture into the Olympic Peninsula and Washington Cascades today and into
Thursday. This atmospheric river containing warm/moist air will lift
freezing levels above 7000 feet, which results in heavy rain falling
across even some of the highest terrain. Rainfall totals exceeding 5
inches are likely along upslope portions of the Olympic Peninsula, where
recent heavy rainfall has already fostered overly saturated antecedent
soil moisture conditions. Heavy rain is also expected to reach the
Washington Cascades and may produce flooding along rivers that flow off
the high terrain. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall, as well as Flood
Watches, have been issued across this region today. There is also a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall in similar parts of western
Washington on Wednesday. Parts of the Columbia Basin in central/eastern
Washington will avoid the surge of warm air at the surface and may contend
with light freezing rain. Winter Weather Advisories have been posted due
to potentially icy and slick travel conditions.

Looking ahead to Thursday night, a strengthening surface low emerging out
of the Canadian Prairies dives south into the North Central U.S. Thursday
night and into Friday. This next storm system is primed to produce heavy
snow and will result in treacherous travel conditions across parts of the
Northern Plains and Midwest to close out the work-week. Residents in these
areas should continue to closely monitor the forecast the next couple days
for the latest information.

Mullinax


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php