Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Jan 14 2022 - 00Z Sun Jan 16 2022

...A quick-hitting winter storm is forecast to bring a swath of heavy snow
from North Dakota southeastward to Iowa...

...Arctic air is forecast to engulf the Northeast Friday night into
Saturday with dangerous wind chills possible on the back side of a large
oceanic storm...

After a period of relatively tranquil weather across much of the Lower 48,
the weather pattern will get very active in a hurry as an upper-level
trough digging through western Canada is forecast to collide with another
disturbance moving into the southern Plains.  The rather vigorous Alberta
clipper is forecast to bring a round of moderate to heavy snow beginning
tonight over North Dakota, spreading quickly southeastward to Iowa for
much of Friday.  Widespread snowfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected
with locally a foot possible.  Difficult driving conditions are likely
throughout these areas as roads become snow covered rapidly.  Visibility
will also be greatly reduced within heavy snowbands along with gusty
winds.  As this clipper digs down the northern Plains on Friday, it will
gradually merge and join force with another system developing in the
southern Plains on Friday.  This will result in high winds to overspread
the High Plains on Friday as cold air plunges southward behind an
intensifying low pressure system.  Gusts in excess of 60 mph could result
in damaging impacts.  By Saturday, the low pressure system is forecast to
consolidate over the Deep South, with a swath of snow dipping through the
Mid-Mississippi Valley while showers and thunderstorms are expected to
blossom over the Deep South ahead of a strong cold front.

Farther east, a very strong and rapidly strengthening storm system in the
eastern Atlantic Ocean will skim past New England on Friday.  Gusty winds
and rough surf will be felt along coastal New England, with light snow
potentially reaching into Interior Downeast Maine and Cape Cod.  This
system will help drag an arctic air mass from eastern Canada into the
Northeast on Friday, setting the stage for a bitter cold night into the
weekend.  Temperatures are forecast to drop into the single digits and
below zero for much of New England on Saturday morning, with wind chills
making it feel even colder.  For interior sections of the Northeast, wind
chills well below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in a matter
of minutes. Residents should plan ahead and dress properly, including a
hat and gloves.  This frigid airmass will also sink into the northern
Mid-Atlantic, with the weekend starting out in the teens and low 20s in
the morning.

Otherwise, warm and dry weather is forecast through Friday across the
southern Plains ahead of the approaching cold front.  Quiet conditions
will also be experienced throughout the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and
Gulf Coast States before the aforementioned low pressure system reaches
the region by the weekend.

Kong/Snell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php