Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 17 2022 - 00Z Wed Jan 19 2022

...A deep low pressure system will continue to spread heavy snow northward
across the upper Ohio Valley through the lower Great Lakes and the higher
elevations of New England through Monday...

...Snow will change over to a period of sleet/freezing rain before
changing over to rain across interior Mid-Atlantic and the lower
elevations of New England...

...Some heavy downpours, thunderstorms, and high winds can be expected to
impact the coastal sections of the Mid-Atlantic up through New England
into Monday...

A low pressure system continues to expand and intensify as it moves across
the southeastern U.S. and begins to turn toward the northeast up the
Eastern Seaboard.  Arctic air already in place across the central and
eastern U.S.
will work in concert with this dynamic system to deliver a wide swath of
more than a foot of heavy snow northward across the upper Ohio Valley
through the lower Great Lakes as the storm center is forecast to track up
the interior section of the East Coast through Monday.  Closer to the
track of the storm center, snow that initially falls is expected to change
over to a period of sleet and/or freezing rain before changing over to
plain rain across interior Mid-Atlantic and up through the lower
elevations of New England.  Along the spine of the Appalachians, snow is
forecast to change over to a period of sleet and/or freezing rain as the
storm center approaches.  The mixed precipitation should then change back
to snow following the passage of the storm center.  Heavy wet snow is
expected across the higher elevations of New England through much of
Monday.  Near the immediate coast, some heavy downpours, thunderstorms,
and high winds can be expected to precede the storm center as it tracks up
the Mid-Atlantic through New England into Monday.

The center of the deep low pressure system is forecast to move into
southeastern Canada Monday night.  This will change the precipitation to
all snow followed by gradual tapering off of the snow Monday night.  Much
improved weather is expected to arrive on Tuesday for the Northeast but
the size of the departing system will keep winds blustery.

Meanwhile, a boundary over Central Canada will move into the Upper Midwest
by Sunday evening. The system will produce light snow over parts of the
Upper Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes for Sunday and begin to
wane by Monday evening. By Tuesday morning, a wave of low pressure over
the Northern High Plains will move into the Northern Plains. Light snow
will develop across the parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern High
Plains into the Northern Plains overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. The
snow will result in reduced visibility and hazardous driving conditions.

Weak onshore flow and approaching upper-level energy will develop light
rain and higher elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest Monday
evening into Tuesday. Moreover, upper-level energy will move over
California producing scattered areas of rain Monday evening into Tuesday.

Kong/Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php