Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 18 2022 - 00Z Thu Jan 20 2022

...Major winter storm begins to exit the Northeast; blustery conditions
continue into Tuesday with lake-effect snows...

...Snow spreading across the upper Midwest to the Great Lakes on Tuesday
ahead of an Alberta clipper...

...Snow spreading into the northern Rockies/High Plains on Tuesday
followed by arctic air intrusion down the Plains on Wednesday...

A deep low pressure system responsible for the most recent winter storm in
the eastern U.S. and severe weather in Florida is forecast to move farther
into southeastern Canada on Tuesday.  The remaining heavy snow in northern
Maine is expected to taper off and change over to mixed precipitation or
wet snow by this evening.  Much of the rest of the interior Northeast will
see the snow becoming more scattered tonight.  Other than the tendency for
lake-effect snows to linger downwind of the lower Great Lakes, the snow
across the Northeast should gradually taper off on Tuesday.  However, due
to the size of the departing storm, blustery conditions are expected to
continue into Tuesday for much of the Northeast.

Meanwhile, a cold front across southern Canada will dip toward the
northern Plains.  An Alberta clipper is forecast to form on the front on
Monday and then move toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday.  Lingering snow
across the Great Lakes will pick up in intensity on Tuesday as the clipper
approaches.  Farther west, accumulating snow is also forecast across
northern Minnesota and northeastern North Dakota.  Arctic air behind the
cold front will then surge into the northern Plains on Tuesday.  Upslope
snow is forecast to develop and intensify over the northern High Plains
into the northern Rockies on Tuesday as an arctic high pressure system
slides down from western Canada.  This arctic plunge will bring sub-zero
temperatures into the northern Plains a Wednesday.  By later on Wednesday,
rain is forecast to blossom across the Deep South to Tennessee ahead of a
developing low pressure system.

Weak onshore flow will produce light rain over parts of the Pacific
Northwest and some snow at the higher elevations from late Monday
afternoon into late Tuesday night. In addition, overnight Tuesday,
moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will start to pool along the
boundary over the eastern portion of the front, developing rain over parts
of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley.

On another note, Monday, warm temperatures, gusty wind, and dry fuels have
led to an area of Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern
High Plains and the Southern Rockies.

Kong/Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php