Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 19 2022 - 00Z Fri Jan 21 2022

...Snow, rain, and thunderstorms to accompany a storm system and cold
front from the Plains to the East Coast...

...Frigid temperatures to overspread the Plains and Midwest....

...Lower elevation rain and mountain snow for the Pacific Northwest and
Northern Rockies Wednesday into Thursday...

A easterly moving storm system over the northern tier of the country
accompanied by a strong cold front will be the main weather story for the
short-term forecast period (Tuesday evening through Thursday evening). A
strong low pressure center currently located over the western Great Lakes
will move to the northeast through southeastern Canada and eventually into
the open Atlantic by Thursday. On Tuesday afternoon, an occluded front
extended to the south with a cold front continuing southwest across the
Central Plains before curving back northwestward through the Central and
Northern Rockies. Snow will continue through this evening across the Upper
Great Lakes with a few more inches expected. Snow will also continue for
the Northern Rockies and adjacent areas of the Northern High Plains, with
a few inches of snow expected in these areas as well, particularly across
Montana. Areas ahead of the cold front across the Central Plains will
remain dry through the night. This will change on Wednesday as moisture
increases ahead of the front as it progresses to the southeast. On the
northern end near the surface low, the snow move into northern New England
and upstate New York while a wintry mix will move across the Lower Great
Lakes. The snow will expand in coverage on Thursday behind the cold front
for the Northeast as the front moves off the East Coast. A wave of low
pressure along the front will also help to increase precipitation chances
from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, with rain Wednesday
transitioning to snow from west to east overnight into Thursday. The cold
air behind the front may bring snow chances as far south as eastern
portions of the Tennessee Valley. Forecast snow accumulations are expected
to remain relatively light, with the greatest chance for a couple inches
or more of snow across northern Upstate New York and New England as well
as the central Appalachians.

Meanwhile, further south, rain and thunderstorms are likely ahead of the
front from the Ohio Valley southwestward through the lower Mississippi
Valley to southeastern Texas. There is a narrow Marginal Risk of Excessive
rainfall for Wednesday from south-central Kentucky southwestward to
Northeast Louisiana where a couple inches of rain, with some locally
higher amounts, is expected. There is also a Marginal Risk of severe
thunderstorms issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the chance of
isolated gusty winds and small hail. The rain will continue ahead of the
front through the Southeast on Thursday, with totals around 1-2 inches
possible.

In addition to precipitation chances along the front, a frigidly cold
airmass will move south and east across the Plains to the Midwest in its
wake with temperatures plunging from the above normal highs seen Tuesday.
Highs on Wednesday will range between the single digits and teens for the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Wednesday, with some locations in in
North Dakota and Minnesota remaining below freezing. Temperatures in the
20s and 30s will spread southward from Chicago to Kansas City and Oklahoma
City. The cold front will continue further south and east on Thursday,
with highs in the 20s and 30s from the Northeast to the Mid-South and into
Texas and 40s for the western Gulf Coast. Gusty winds behind the front as
well as lows below zero Wednesday morning have prompted Wind Chill
Advisories from eastern Montana to the Upper Missouri and Mississippi
Valleys. Lows on Thursday will dip even colder, with temperatures well
below zero expanding southward into the Mid Missouri and Mississippi
Valleys.

A storm system approaching the Pacific Northwest will bring an increasing
chance for lower elevation rain and mountain snow throughout the day
Wednesday. The chance for snow will expand further east across the
Northern Rockies and High Plains on Thursday. Snow accumulations should
generally remain light, with higher totals between 4-8 inches remaining
confined to higher elevations in the mountains.


Putnam

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php