Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Jan 19 2022 - 12Z Fri Jan 21 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley through Thursday morning...

...Light snow from parts of the Middle Mississippi, Southern Ohio Valleys,
and the Mid-Atlantic; light to moderate snow over parts of the Northeast
on Wednesday...

...There is a Risk of rain/freezing rain over parts of the Southern
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday...

...There is a Risk of scattered rain/freezing rain over parts of the
Western Gulf Coast to the southern Mid-Atlantic on Thursday...

Low pressure over Ontario, Canada, will move into the Canadian Maritimes
by Thursday morning. The associated front will move off most of the East
Coast and the Gulf Coast by Thursday evening. A wave of low pressure along
the boundary will linger over parts of the Southeast through Friday.
Moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will start to pool along the
boundary over the eastern portion of the front, developing rain over parts
of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley,
starting around noon on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop
over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent areas, with these
storms becoming severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley through
Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Incidentally, light snow will develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley into parts of the Ohio Valley starting late Wednesday afternoon.
Along the rain/snow line, areas of light rain/freezing rain will develop
over parts of the Southern Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. In the
meantime, light snow will develop over parts of Northern New England and
expand into other parts of the Northeast by Wednesday evening. Overnight
Wednesday, the snow will expand into eastern parts of the Ohio Valley,
Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. Furthermore, the rain over the
Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys moves into parts of the Southern
Appalachians and parts of the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday morning. In the
wake of the system, lake effect snow will develop downwind from the Great
Lakes through Friday. Moreover, the light snow will end over most of the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by Thursday evening.However, along the
rain/snow line, scattered areas of rain/freezing rain will develop over
parts of the Western Gulf Coast to the southern Mid-Atlantic on Thursday.
Furthermore, the rain will continue over parts of the Southeast through
Friday morning.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the western portion of the front will produce
light snow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies through Thursday
morning. In addition, energy moving across the Southwest into the Southern
Plains will produce light snow over parts of the Southern High Plains
overnight Wednesday evening into Thursday afternoon. Elsewhere, weak
onshore flow will produce light rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest
and some snow at the higher elevations on Wednesday. Additionally,
overnight Wednesday, upper-level energy will move onshore over the
Northwest and move to the Northern Intermountain Region come Friday. The
energy will continue the rain over the Pacific Northwest coming to an end
overnight Thursday. Also, on Thursday, snow will increase over the
Northern Intermountain Region and expand into parts of the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains Thursday evening into Friday.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php