Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Jan 20 2022 - 00Z Sat Jan 22 2022

...Widespread wintry precipitation and rain expected from the East Coast
to to southern Texas...

...Potentially significant freezing rain for the Carolinas and snow for
the southern Mid-Atlantic begins Friday...  

...Frigid cold expands across most of the central and eastern U.S....

...Lower elevation rain and higher terrain snow forecast from the Pacific
Northwest to the Northern Plains...

Widespread wintry precipitation and frigid temperatures will impact many
regions across the country during the short-term forecast period
(Wednesday evening through Friday evening). Snow, sleet, and freezing rain
are forecast from New England to south Texas behind a powerful cold front
moving east across the country. Starting in the north, light snow showers
will continue for portions of the Great Lakes east to northern New England
overnight Wednesday. Potentially more significant snowfall will occur
starting overnight Wednesday for the Ohio Valley and spreading east to the
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England Thursday morning. While snowfall
totals are forecast to remain between 1-2 inches for most locations, the
snow will likely fall quickly and overlap the Thursday morning commute,
particularly for the major cities along the I-95 corridor. Further South,
rain and thunderstorms will continue along the cold front across the
Southeast and the Gulf Coast. Some locally heavy rain of 1-2 inches is
possible, but low rain rates and quick moving storms will keep the threat
of flooding low. Of greater significance will be the potential for icing
from the Tennessee Valley south to the Gulf Coast and southern Texas as
colder air moves in behind the front Thursday evening. While totals should
remain light, with only a glaze expected for most areas, the icing may
lead to slick roads, particularly bridges. Winter Storm Watches and Winter
Weather Advisories have been issued for portions of southern Texas.

The most concerning portion of the forecast comes Friday as a wave of low
pressure along the cold front deepens off the coast when the front moves
into the Atlantic, encouraging potentially significant freezing rain
across the Carolinas and snow for the southern Mid-Atlantic. While impacts
from this storm will continue beyond the current forecast period, the
freezing rain may start as early as Thursday evening for the Carolinas.
Winter Storm Watches have been issued for portions of northeastern South
Carolina and eastern North Carolina for the potential of 0.2" - 0.4" of
freezing rain through Saturday morning. Areas west and north of the
immediate coast from Myrtle Beach north to Wilmington have the greatest
chance of seeing the higher end totals. Freezing rain of this magnitude
has the potential to cause widespread tree damage and power outages. In
addition, snow will begin further north from the Tidewater of southeastern
Virginia to the southern DelMarVa peninsula Friday and continue into
Saturday. Snow totals of 4"+ are forecast.

Meanwhile, behind the front, frigid cold will continue to expand across
most of the central and eastern U.S. Highs on Thursday will range from the
single digits across the Upper Midwest, the teens and 20s from the
Northeast to the Central Plains, and the 30s and 40s from the Carolinas to
the western Gulf Coast. Temperatures will drop even colder on Friday for
the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic with highs in the teens and 20s common,
while highs in the 40s expand east along the Gulf Coast outside the
Florida Peninsula. Wind Chill Advisories remain in effect from the
Northern High Plains east to the Upper Mississippi Valley for Thursday
morning with lows forecast in the negative teens and 20s and gusty winds
expected. A Freeze Watch is also out for portions of South Texas for
Friday morning as lows will dip into the upper 20s and low 30s for most
areas outside of the lower Rio Grande Valley.

A storm system approaching the Pacific Northwest will move inland by
Thursday morning, continuing chances for lower elevation rain and mountain
snow for portions Washington and Oregon overnight Wednesday and into the
day Thursday. The snow will expand into the Northern Rockies throughout
the day on Thursday and into the Central Rockies and Northern Plains on
Friday as another system organizes over Canada and progresses to the
southeast across the Northern Plains. Snow accumulations should generally
remain light, with totals of more than a couple of inches confined to
higher elevation in the mountains.

Putnam

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php