Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 22 2022 - 00Z Mon Jan 24 2022

...Significant icing across the coastal plains of the Carolinas tonight;
periods of snow in southeast Virginia and the Carolina Piedmont...

...Arctic chill continues across much of the southern and eastern U.S....

...Light snow across the Upper Midwest and toward the upper Great Lakes;
High Winds tonight and Saturday morning in California; snow showers across
southern Rockies move toward the southern Rockies...

An upper level trough tracking through the Tennessee Valley this evening
will induce a swath of snow and wintry mix across portions of the
Carolinas and southeast Virginia. The heaviest snowfall is expected from
the southeast Virginia Tidewater through the Carolina Piedmont where snow
totals up to 6" are possible. Farther south in eastern Georgia and along
the coast of both North and South Carolina, an icy wintry mix will make
for treacherous travel conditions this evening and into the overnight
hours. The areas that stay predominantly freezing rain could receive
0.25-0.50" of ice accumulation, allowing to the potential for widespread
tree damage and power outages. Periods of snow will linger into early
Saturday morning but bitterly cold temperatures in the storm system's wake
allows for snow covered and icy untreated roads to remain hazardous for
travel during the day Saturday.

Speaking of "bitterly cold temperatures" an Arctic air-mass remains
entrenched over the eastern U.S. on Saturday. Subzero temperatures
Saturday morning (with even colder wind chills ranging between -10 to -20
in northern New England) are expected while wind chills in the teens reach
as far south as the central Gulf Coast. Saturday's high temps will
struggle to get above freezing across the northeastern quarter of the
Lower 48 while high temperature departures along the Southeast Coast and
along the Rio Grande in Texas range between 15 to 20 degrees below normal.
Farther north, another cold front is set to deliver another round of
frigid temperatures to the North Central U.S. this weekend. This front
also produces snow showers throughout the upper Great Lakes Saturday.
Meanwhile, an Alberta Clipper ushers in a round of snow to the northern
Plains late Saturday as well as another reinforcing shot of Arctic air
across the Upper Midwest by Sunday. By Sunday evening, a swath of light
snowfall accumulations are likely from the Dakotas to the lower Great
Lakes. Latest snowfall forecasts show the heaviest totals will be in the
Upper Great Lakes where lake effect snow bands could drop as much as a
foot of snow in parts of Michigan's Upper Peninsula. Where the Alberta
Clipper tracks, anywhere from 3-6" of snow accumulation is possible from
southern Minnesota to northern Indiana.

Farther west, an upper low in the Desert Southwest will generate unsettled
weather for the Four Corners region while Santa Ana Winds race through
southern California. High Wind Warnings have been posted just north and
east of Los Angeles, the central Sierra Nevada, and the coastal ranges
north of San Francisco. An even larger footprint of Wind Advisories is in
effect through Saturday morning from central California to the southern
Great Basin. The upper low is forecast to produce light snowfall
accumulations from the highest peaks of southern California to the
Mogollon Rim of Arizona and the southern Rockies tonight through Saturday.
This upper low will inch east on Sunday with only a few spotty showers and
some light snowfall accumulations in the higher elevations of eastern
Arizona and western New Mexico. Temperature-wise, the West remains fairly
mild overall with the warmest departures focused along the West Coast. In
the Great Plains, a warm front sliding east gives way to warming
temperatures throughout much of the region. High temps by Sunday are
likely to reach the 50s in the central Plains, which is roughly 10 to 20
degrees above normal for late January.

Mullinax


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php