Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 PM EST Sat Jan 22 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Jan 23 2022 - 00Z Tue Jan 25 2022

...Periods of light to moderate snow from the Northern Plains to the Great
Lakes...

...Low pressure system to bring rain showers and thunderstorms to the Gulf
Coast beginning Monday...

...Arctic chill continues across much of the southern and eastern U.S.,
but mild weather returns to the Northern/Central Plains and Mississippi
Valley; West Coast remains warmer than normal....

The pattern across the CONUS will be fairly straightforward; a series of
shortwaves will round a trough stationed over Ontario while ridging
continues in the west and a closed low weakens as it swings from the
Southwest through Texas. The first shortwave will spawn an area of low
pressure along a stationary front draped across the Northern Plains today.
This new system will track across the Midwest through Sunday, dumping a
swath of 3-6 inches of snow from southeastern Minnesota to southwestern
Pennsylvania along the way. Isolated amounts exceeding 6 inches are
possible, particularly in and around southern Lake Michigan. As the first
clipper moves off into the Atlantic another shortwave will drop into the
Upper Midwest, but this one will take a slightly more northerly track than
its predecessor. Light snow showers will blanket the Great Lakes with 2-4
inches as a result. Lake effect enhancement from both systems could see
areas downwind of the lakes receive increased amounts by Monday evening.

A closed upper-level low will degrade into an open trough as it swings
into the Southern Plains over the next couple of days. This upper feature
will develop a surface low over southern Texas on Monday and tap a bit of
subtropical moisture by Monday. This newly developed southern stream
system will go on to produce modest amounts of rainfall along the Gulf
coast on Monday and Tuesday. Fortunately, the heaviest rainfall will occur
over the Gulf so risk of flash flooding remains low as of right now.

Cold air from the late week arctic front that passed through the eastern
half of the country are forecast to remain across the Gulf and East Coasts
through Monday. Temperatures are likely to be between 10-15 degrees below
normal for the aforementioned areas over the next couple of days.
Temperatures will drop across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday
behind the clipper system. The Northern/Central Plains will also warm up
considerably tomorrow with high temperatures peaking at around 15-20
degrees above normal over parts of South Dakota. The warmth spreads into
the Mississippi Valley on Monday. The West remains seasonably warm for the
next several days due to the staunch Pacific ridge.

Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php