Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Jan 28 2022 - 00Z Sun Jan 30 2022

...Powerful winter storm to produce significant impacts across parts of
New England and potentially into eastern sections of the Mid-Atlantic on
Saturday...

...Well below average temperatures to spread over the eastern U.S. to
start the weekend...

The most noteworthy weather story heading into the last weekend of January
will be associated with a strengthening Nor'easter forecast to move up the
East Coast. Ahead of the main system strengthening off the Carolina coast,
an approaching cold front is expected to push through the Great Lakes
tonight and into the Northeast/Central Appalachians on Friday. This will
aid in producing light snow from the western Ohio Valley to southern New
England. As an upper-level trough deepens over the Southeast and turn
negatively-tilted Friday night, rapid strengthening of the aforementioned
low pressure system is expected. The low pressure center is then forecast
to track north-northeast and churn off the coast of Cape Cod by Saturday
night. Light snow is expected to initially overspread much of the
Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Friday night into Saturday morning, with
overall snowfall amounts under 3 inches. Meanwhile, moderate-to-heavy snow
is possible by Saturday morning along coastal sections of the Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast, as well as New England. Snow is forecast to continue across
this region into Saturday night, as well as the potential for increasing
wind gusts. Parts of southern New England, particularly eastern
Massachusetts, Long Island, Rhode Island, and Cape Cod can anticipate
significant impacts associated with heavy snow rates and gusty winds.
Here, total snowfall amounts may add up to over 20 inches by the time the
system exits on Sunday. Additionally, significant coastal impacts are
possible, including coastal flooding and beach erosion. The greatest
uncertainty with the snowfall forecast lies along the I-95 corridor from
Richmond, VA to Hartford, CT, where the western edge of the highest
potential snowfall amounts exist. The gradient between little snowfall to
over 6 inches will likely be very tight. Therefore, any slight shift in
the current forecast can have drastic effects on potential impacts.
Residents are urged to continue checking for the latest forecast in order
to receive the most up to date information.

Meanwhile, the next surge of arctic air is currently located over the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and will continue diving southward into much of
the eastern U.S. by Saturday. Well below average temperatures will reach
as far south as the Gulf Coast States, including most of Florida. In fact,
highs on Saturday will struggle to reach out of the 40s and 50s throughout
the Sunshine State. Potentially dangerous subzero wind chills are also
possible throughout the Northeast by Saturday night.

Other areas of precipitation include light snow across parts of the
Southern Rockies tonight and isolated showers through most of southern
Texas on Friday. Dry and tranquil conditions can be expected elsewhere
over the the central and western U.S. under the influence of a potent
upper-level ridge.

Snell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php