Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Mon Jan 31 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 31 2022 - 12Z Wed Feb 02 2022

...Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding for parts
of the central Texas Gulf Coast today...

...Pacific Northwest system produces moderate to heavy snowfall for
Cascades and Northern Rockies today before spreading light snow and high
winds across Northern Plains tonight; Critical Fire Weather Risk for parts
of northwestern Nebraska this afternoon...

...A large and significant winter storm is expected to impact much of the
central U.S. beginning the middle of this week...

A closed upper-level low will make its way across Texas today. This
upper-feature will tap into Gulf moisture and send it streaming northward
over a surface front draped along the Texas Gulf Coast. A focused area of
heavy rainfall and scattered to isolated thunderstorms are expected to
develop today roughly between Houston and Corpus Christi. Multiple inches
of rain are forecast to fall, particularly over inland areas. A Slight
Risk of Heavy Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect for this
area as a result. The intensity of this threat is likely to wane by
Tuesday, when the upper-low is forecast to weaken and eventually be
absorbed into the broader flow to its north. Light rain and scattered
thunderstorms are likely to spread into the central Gulf Coast during this
period.

A Pacific Northwest system, powered by shortwave energy slicing through
the region, will continue to bring moderate to heavy snow to parts of the
Cascades and Northern Rockies today before setting its sights on the
Northern Plains tonight. Warm air will spread across the Plains and
Mississippi Valley out ahead of this system today and on Tuesday. This
system will deepen quite a bit as it moves across southern Canada today,
leading to light snow and high winds across portions of the Northern
Plains where High Wind Warnings are in effect. High winds and dry
conditions will also lead to the threat of fires across portions of
northwestern Nebraska where Critical Fire Weather is a concern.

A closed upper-level low out in the North Pacific will phase with
shortwave energy coming from northwest Canada. This phasing will amplify
the mean trough reinforcing the Pacific Northwest system and sending its
associated cold front sweeping down across the Plains on Tuesday as the
surface low over southern Canada continues to strengthen. Frigid arctic
air will begin to enter into the Northern Plains on Wednesday as a result.
The amplified upper-level trough will tap into Gulf moisture on Wednesday
as the arctic airmass sweeps down the spine of the Great Plains. This will
be the setup for a powerful midweek winter storm impacting a wide swath of
the country's mid-section extending from portions of the Central/Southern
Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, Midwest, Great Lakes and eventually the
Northeast.

Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php