Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 PM EST Mon Jan 31 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 01 2022 - 00Z Thu Feb 03 2022

...Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding for parts
of the central Texas Gulf Coast today...

...Pacific Northwest system produces moderate to heavy snowfall for
Cascades and Northern Rockies today before spreading light snow and high
winds across the Northern Plains tonight; Critical Fire Weather Risk for
parts of western Nebraska this afternoon...

...A major winter storm is expected to impact much of the central U.S.
beginning Tuesday night and continuing through Wednesday night...

A closed upper-level low making its way across Texas today is tapping into
Gulf moisture and streaming it northward over a surface front draped
across South Texas. A focused area of heavy rain and scattered
thunderstorms have developed and will continue to produce locally heavy
rainfall rates in parts of southeast Texas. A Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall is in effect for this area due to a heightened risk for flash
flooding. A couple additional inches of rainfall are forecast, most
notably closer to the southeast Texas coast. The heaviest rainfall rates
will track over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico come Tuesday morning
as the upper-low weakens and becomes absorbed into the broader flow to the
north. Remnant scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible along
the central Gulf Coast on Tuesday.

A Pacific storm system that brought periods of snow to parts of the
northern Rockies is racing east this afternoon across the southern
Canadian Prairies. This area of low pressure will deepen quite a bit as it
moves across southern Canada today, leading to treacherous snow and ice
accumulations for parts of the northern Plains. Winter Storm Warnings have
been posted for eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota through
Tuesday morning due to the concerns for potential impacts from blowing
snow and icy travel conditions. Meanwhile, high winds combined with above
normal temperatures and dry conditions have prompted the issuance of a
Critical Risk for fire weather in parts of the central Plains. High Wind
Warnings are also in effect for northern Montana, southeast Wyoming, the
higher elevations of northern Colorado, western Nebraska, and most of the
Dakotas. 

Confidence is growing in the formation of a major winter storm that is set
to bring disruptive snow and ice accumulations from the Rockies and the
Heartland to the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. Latest snowfall
forecasts suggest up to a foot or more of snow is possible in the higher
elevations of Colorado and New Mexico. Farther east, highest probabilities
for totals exceeding 4 inches span from eastern Kansas to the Lower Great
Lakes. Where colder subfreezing surface temperatures ensue and warm
southerly flow aloft overruns the Arctic cold front racing south, an icy
mix of sleet and freezing rain is expected to occur. This includes a swath
of the central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and into eastern
Corn Belt. Places as far south as North Texas could also receive hazardous
ice and snow accumulations. The threat for heavy snow and treacherous
icing will last into Thursday but uncertainty remains in how long certain
locations stay snow or wintry mix longer, which could still result in
changes to the snowfall and ice accumulation forecasts. Residents under
Winter Storm Watches should continue to monitor the forecast closely for
any additional updates as significant disruptions to travel (both by air
and by ground) are anticipated in these affected regions Wednesday into
Thursday. In the storm's warm sector, periods of rain are anticipated
throughout much the Mid-South on Wednesday. On the backside of the winter
storm, bitterly cold temperatures will result in the arrival of some of
the coldest temperatures observed so far this winter for the southern
Plains the second half of the week.

Mullinax


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php