Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Tue Feb 01 2022

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 01 2022 - 12Z Thu Feb 03 2022

...A major winter storm is expected to impact much of the central U.S.
beginning Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday morning...

...Frigid arctic air sweeps south across Great Plains beginning
Wednesday...

An amplifying upper trough, currently barreling through the western U.S.,
will be the driving force for a dangerous midweek winter storm across the
central part of the country beginning Tuesday night. This winter storm
will bring a variety of winter weather hazards including heavy snow,
sleet, and freezing rain. The upper trough will slow as it makes its way
through the CONUS, meaning that a prolonged event with several rounds of
winter weather will occur through Thursday for portions of the central
U.S. before shifting to the interior Northeast. Heavy snow is expected
over the Southern Rockies and from the south-central Great Plains through
the eastern Great Lakes and Interior Northeast. Snowfall totals of 6 to 12
inches are expected over parts of the Southern Rockies and Central Plains
to Midwest by Thursday morning. Locally higher totals are possible,
especially over the higher mountain elevations of the Rockies. A corridor
of heavy ice accumulation (exceeding a quarter of an inch) is likely from
Texas through the Ohio Valley. Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are in
effect for much of the area to be affected by heavy snow and ice.

Locations impacted by snow and/or ice are expected to have temperatures
remain below freezing, and well below average, for at least a couple days
after the wintry precipitations ends thanks to the emergence of arctic
high pressure, which will descend over the Great Plains on Wednesday. This
high pressure will send very frigid air down through the Plains between
Wednesday and Friday. High temperatures for many places across the Plains
will be between 15-25 degrees below average during this period. Moderate
to heavy rainfall may develop within the warm sector of this dynamic
system, i.e. from the Southern Plains to the Northeast. Scattered to
isolated thunderstorms may develop across the central Gulf Coast on
Wednesday night. Some lingering snow showers are possible across the
Northern Rockies today. The eastern half of the country will warm up over
the next few days before the cold front associated with the winter storm
sweeps through and drops temperatures again this weekend.

Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php