Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 AM EST Wed Feb 02 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 02 2022 - 12Z Fri Feb 04 2022

...An ongoing significant winter storm will impact much of the central and
northeastern U.S. through Thursday morning...

...A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in
effect for portions of the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley on
Thursday...

...Arctic air surges south through central U.S.; East Coast warms up...

An amplified upper-level trough will power a dangerous winter storm across
the central and northeastern parts of the country over the next couple of
days.This winter storm will bring a variety of winter weather hazards,
including heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain. The system will be
prolonged with several rounds of winter weather lasting through Thursday
for portions of the central U.S. before shifting to the interior
Northeast. Heavy snow is expected over the Southern Rockies and from the
Southern/Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley through the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Interior Northeast. A corridor of heavy ice
(rain/freezing rain) accumulation is likely from Texas through the Ohio
River Valley. Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for much of
the areas to be affected by heavy snow and ice. In addition, the
combination of snow and ice may cause hazardous road conditions. Plan now
for prolonged hazardous winter weather conditions and disrupted travel.

Locations impacted by snow and or ice are expected to have temperatures
remain below freezing and well below average for at least a couple of days
after the wintry precipitation ends. The cold temperatures will be due to
the emergence of arctic high pressure, which will descend over the Plains
on Wednesday. This high pressure will send very frigid air down through
the Plains between today and Friday. As a result, high temperatures for
many places across the Plains will be between 15-25 degrees below average
during this period. The eastern third of the country will warm up a bit
out ahead of the cold front associated with the winter storm. Temperatures
will moderate upon the passage of the cold front on Friday night.

Additionally, moderate to heavy rainfall may develop within the warm
sector of this dynamic system, i.e., from the Southern Plains to the
Northeast. Scattered to isolated thunderstorms may develop across the
Central Gulf Coast tonight. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to
flash flooding is in effect for this area due to the potential for some
thunderstorms to produce locally heavy rainfall. Elsewhere, upper-level
energy and weak onshore flow will aid in producing coastal rain and higher
elevation snow over the Pacific Northwest and light snow over the Northern
Intermountain Region into the Northern/Central Rockies through Thursday.

Kebede/Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php