Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
207 AM EST Thu Feb 03 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Feb 03 2022 - 12Z Sat Feb 05 2022

...An ongoing significant winter storm is expected to impact much of the
central and Northeastern U.S. through Friday night...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast through Friday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for southern Mississippi
into central Alabama through Friday morning...

...Temperatures will be 20 to 40 degrees below average over parts of the
Plains and Mississippi Valley; Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees above
average along the East Coast...

A strong cold front extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Southern
Plains will move off of the East Coast by Friday evening. The front,
supported by an amplified upper-level trough, will continue to produce a
large, prolonged significant winter storm that impacts much of the central
and Northeast U.S., bringing a variety of winter weather hazards,
including heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain. A damaging ice storm is
currently underway from eastern Arkansas to western Kentucky, where over a
half inch of ice may accumulate by Friday morning. This will likely result
in power outages, tree damage, and dangerous travel conditions. A broader
corridor of heavy ice accumulation is likely from Texas through the Ohio
River Valley. Heavy snow totals are expected over the Southern Rockies and
from the south-central Great Plains through the eastern Great Lakes and
interior Northeast by Saturday morning. Therefore, Winter Storm Watches
and Warnings as well as Ice Storm Warnings are in effect for much of the
areas affected by heavy snow and ice. In addition, the combination of snow
and ice will cause hazardous road conditions.

Locations impacted by snow and or ice are expected to have temperatures
remain below freezing and well below average for at least the next couple
of days. The cold temperatures are due to the emergence of arctic high
pressure, which settled over the Plains on Wednesday. This high pressure
locked in very frigid air over the Plains through this Friday. As a
result, high temperatures for many places across the Plains and
Mississippi Valley will be between 20-40 degrees below average during this
period. Dangerously cold wind chills are expected to continue over central
and southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin through Friday morning.

Additionally, moderate to heavy rain will develop within the warm sector
of this dynamic system, i.e., from the Southern Plains to the Northeast.
Therefore, the Weather Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and
Southeast from today into Friday morning. The heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable. Widely scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms, capable of damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes,
are possible today from southern Mississippi into parts of central
Alabama. A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms was issued for these areas
by the Storm Prediction Center as a result.

Furthermore, upper-level energy and weak onshore flow will aid in
producing coastal rain and higher elevation snow over the Pacific
Northwest and light snow over the Northern Intermountain Region into the
Northern/Central Rockies through Friday. Over the next couple of days, a
pair of Alberta Clippers will sweep across the Northern Plains. Both
clippers will produce light to moderate snowfall for parts of the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

Kebede/Ziegenfelder



Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php