Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EST Fri Feb 04 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 04 2022 - 12Z Sun Feb 06 2022

...Major winter storm to produce heavy snow and treacherous ice
accumulations in the Northeast today; scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible in the Southeast...

...Bitterly cold temperatures ranging between 15 to 30 degrees below
average from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley, very cold weekend in
the Northeast...

...High winds expected in parts of the northern Rockies & Plains, light
snow accumulations possible in the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes
on Saturday...

The expansive major winter storm that has produced a myriad of hazards
over the last couple days, including but not limited to heavy snow,
crippling ice accumulations, flash flooding, and severe weather will enter
its third and final day before exiting stage right into the Atlantic Ocean
this weekend. More heavy snow is forecast across northern New England
today with the heaviest accumulations in eastern Maine where over 6 inches
of snowfall is expected. A little farther south, where surface
temperatures are plummeting below freezing but milder temperatures at
mid-levels of the atmosphere are also present, an icy wintry mix is
expected to cause slick travel conditions for the morning commute from the
interior northern Mid-Atlantic to the more urbanized I-95 corridor from
Boston to New York City. Parts of central Massachusetts could receive as
much as a quarter inch of ice by the time the storm exits off the coast
this afternoon, while even parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic could
receive as much as a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation. Light snow
accumulations remain possible in parts of the upper Ohio Valley this
morning with bitterly cold temperatures continuing to filter into the
region throughout the day. Farther south, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible from southeast Virginia to northern Florida
with some thunderstorms potentially becoming severe.

In wake of this week's massive winter storm, frigid temperatures courtesy
of a large dome of Arctic high pressure is becoming firmly entrenched from
the Rockies and throughout the Heartland today. Morning lows ranging
between the single digits and below zero are anticipated up and down the
Great Plains with the coldest temperature anomalies located "Deep in the
Heart of Texas". Blustery winds combined with the abnormally cold
temperatures have prompted the issuance of Wind Chill Warnings and
Advisories across much of the Southern Plains. In fact, temperatures are
so cold that Winter Storm Warnings remain in place for parts of the Deep
South where lingering icy roads are still a concern for the Friday morning
commute. Scattered snow showers tracking through the Mid-South may also
lead to hazardous travel conditions this morning. By Saturday morning, the
troublesome winter storm finally exits off the East Coast, but bitterly
cold temperatures look to stick around with some temperatures challenging
record lows in the South Central U.S.. Milder temperatures return to parts
of the North Central U.S. Saturday and Sunday, but the Arctic high then
slides over the eastern U.S. making for a frosty first weekend of February
in the northeast quarter of the Lower 48.

Elsewhere, the weekend weather pattern becomes more tranquil thanks to a
pair of large high pressure systems setting up shop over the eastern third
of the U.S. and along the West Coast. Sandwiched in the middle is an upper
level disturbance and an associated low pressure system traversing the
Northwest this afternoon and reaching the Northern Plains by Saturday.
Mountain snow and valley/coastal rain are on tap for the Pacific Northwest
as well as strong winds in parts of Montana, leading to the issuance of
High Wind Warnings and Watches for parts of "Big Sky Country" late Friday
into early Saturday. Periods of snow are expected from North Dakota and
northern Minnesota Saturday morning to the Upper Great Lakes Saturday
night into Sunday morning. The heaviest snow totals (exceeding 6 inches)
are most likely in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. Aside from some areas of
mountain snow in the northern Rockies and scattered showers in Florida,
Saturday appears mostly dry for the remainder of the country.

Mullinax


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php