Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 PM EST Fri Feb 04 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Feb 05 2022 - 00Z Mon Feb 07 2022

...Major and expansive winter storm finally exiting the Northeast...

...Bitterly cold temperatures will span an area from the Southern Plains
to the Ohio Valley and Northeast, but with a gradual warm-up expected over
areas of the South by later this weekend...

...Light snow accumulations expected over the Upper Midwest and northern
Great Lakes on Saturday...

The major and expansive winter storm that has impacted areas of the South,
the Midwest and the Northeast over the last couple of days is finally
beginning to exit offshore of New England and will be pulling away from
the U.S. overnight. A strong cold front associated with the departing
winter storm will be clearing much of the East Coast, and this will allow
for some of the Arctic air over the Midwest and Great Lakes region to
surge southeastward and encompass New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and
portions of Southeast going through the weekend. Despite the colder
temperatures, high pressure will arrive and foster a much more tranquil
weather pattern over the next few days. However, the there will still be a
threat for showers down across the Florida Peninsula this weekend as close
proximity of the front, an increase in Atlantic onshore flow, and
development of a weak area of low pressure off the east coast of Florida
helps to keep moisture focused over the region.

Meanwhile, bitterly cold air that has already infiltrated areas of the
South, and especially the southern Plains region, will begin to gradually
moderate going through the weekend. However, morning low temperatures for
Saturday across areas of Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas are forecast to be
only in the single digits and teens which will be as much as 15 to 25
degrees below average. This will likely be record-setting cold for a
number of locations. High temperatures though for many of these areas will
at least be able to start warming above freezing this weekend which will
help facilitate the thawing out process in the wake of the most recent
winter storm. However, farther to the northeast, temperatures across the
Ohio Valley and Northeast that saw locally significant snow and ice
accumulations will still see bitterly cold temperatures for much of the
weekend. Low temperatures here this weekend will locally be below zero or
in the single digits with daytime highs remaining well below freezing.

A weak area of low pressure will be dropping southeast on Saturday across
the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, and this will
bring a swath of accumulating snow for areas of northern Minnesota and the
U.P. of Michigan where locally several inches are expected. In behind the
departing low center and associated cold front, there will be a renewed
shot of Arctic air arriving down across the Upper Midwest from southern
Canada. However, on the warm side of this same front, temperatures farther
back to the west across the central and northern High Plains are expected
to be much milder with temperatures warming to as much as 10 to 15 degrees
above average this weekend.

Elsewhere, the weekend weather pattern will be dry, and especially over
the Western U.S. thanks to a large area of high pressure that will remain
in place across the region.

Orrison

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php