Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 AM EST Sat Feb 05 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Feb 05 2022 - 12Z Mon Feb 07 2022

...Bitterly cold temperatures will span an area from the Southern Plains
to the Ohio Valley and Northeast today; gradual warm-up expected on
Sunday..

...Light snow accumulations expected over the Upper Midwest and northern
Great Lakes...

...Wet weather possible in the Southeast and South Texas to close out the
weekend...

A more tranquil stretch of weather is on tap this weekend thanks to a pair
of high pressure systems setting up over the eastern and western thirds of
the Lower 48. The dome of high pressure in the East is keeping
temperatures abnormally cold from the Southern Plains to the East Coast
today. The coldest temperature anomalies will be located in Texas and the
Middle Mississippi Valley where they look to range between 15 and 25
degrees below normal. In fact, record cold morning lows may be broken in
areas of south-central Texas. In the Upper Midwest, subzero morning lows
are expected with lingering breezy winds prompting the issuance of Wind
Chill Advisories in parts of Iowa and Illinois. Chilly temperatures will
be common up and down the East Coast today with the lone exception being
South Florida. By Sunday, the Arctic air-mass engulfing much of the South
and East moderates to more seasonally cool levels. Mostly dry conditions
are in store for most residents from the Great Plains to the Northeast
this weekend, which comes as a welcome sight for those who dealt with the
winter storm in recent days. In the West, the other ridge of high pressure
is leading to the opposite temperature regime along the West Coast where a
milder air-mass will set up shop for the weekend. Similar to their
neighbors to the East, the West is also forecast to stay mostly dry.
Abnormally mild temperatures are also anticipated in the Northern Plains
where a passing warm front ushers in more March-like temperatures to the
region.

There are a few areas that will contend with some unsettled weather this
weekend. A weak area of low pressure dropping southeast across the
Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes regions will bring a swath
of accumulating snow for areas of northern Minnesota and the U.P. of
Michigan. Several inches of snow are expected with totals over six inches
possible in the U.P. of Michigan. Meanwhile, the upper trough pushing the
aforementioned low pressure eastward is set to produce light snowfall
accumulations in parts of the northern and central Rockies. This upper
trough is also responsible for a surge in strong winds across "Big Sky
Country", resulting in High Wind Warnings for parts of Montana early this
morning. Off the Southeast coast, a stalled frontal boundary will foster a
favorable environment for a developing wave of low pressure along it by
Sunday. Spotty showers and even a few thunderstorms are possible in
Florida and as far north as southern Georgia and South Carolina by Sunday
evening. Lastly, an upper trough over western Mexico will eject east
towards Texas Sunday night, leading to the development of showers and
potentially some thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday morning across far
South Texas.

Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php