Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 AM EST Mon Feb 07 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Feb 07 2022 - 12Z Wed Feb 09 2022

...A coastal storm to produce and icy wintry mix from the southern
Mid-Atlantic to southern New England today; measurable snowfall expected
in northern New England...

...Rain in South Texas this morning; snow showers in the Great Lakes;
blustery winds in "Big Sky Country" and Southern California today...

...A warm up for the Northern and Central Plains, quite mild along the
West Coast...

A coastal front and a wave of low pressure connected to an elongated
stationary front is set to cause unsettled weather to kickoff the first
full week of February along the East Coast. The immediate coastal areas
from the Mid-Atlantic can expect scattered showers this morning and into
midday while coastal New England awaits its round of showers to arrive
later this afternoon. Farther inland, subfreezing temperatures will result
in precipitation falling as an icy wintry mix from the Delaware Valley to
central New England. As the area of low pressure quickly organizes, snow
may fall heavily over central Maine, resulting in snowfall accumulations
exceeding 6 inches. Slick spots on roads are possible in these areas,
especially in New England where a glaze of ice and light snow
accumulations have resulted in the issuance of Winter Weather Advisories
today. Freezing rain is possible as far south as the North Carolina
Piedmont, where Winter Weather Advisories are in effect due to the
potential for hazardous travel conditions. Farther south, the same frontal
boundary combined with the approach of an upper level trough from the
South Central U.S. fosters a suitable environment for spotty showers
across much of Florida Monday night into Tuesday.

Elsewhere, most of the U.S. from the Mississippi River on westward to the
West Coast can expect mostly dry conditions. One lone exception is the
lower Rio Grande Valley where periods of rain, falling heavily at times,
is forecast in the early morning hours today. Drier conditions return to
far South Texas the second half of the day as high pressure builds in from
the north. In the Great Lakes, a weak and slow moving frontal system
continues to be a catalyst for scattered snow showers throughout the
region, leading to light snow accumulations from the U.P. of Michigan to
areas downwind and east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Farther west, an
approaching upper level disturbance delivers a surge in winds throughout
much of Montana. High Wind Watches and Warnings have been issued for parts
of the state due to the potential for wind gusts as high as 60 mph today
and into Monday evening. In addition to the gusty winds, low humidity
levels and abnormally mild conditions makes for favorable fire weather
conditions. This has led to the Storm Prediction Center issuing an
Elevated Risk for fire weather in eastern Montana today. Blustery
conditions are also possible in southern California where strong high
pressure in the Intermountain West and a surface trough along the coast
supports the potential for wind gusts up to 50 mph in the Transverse Range
later today.

Temperature-wise, the most abnormally cool temperatures will be located
along the Gulf Coast with South Florida clinging to seasonally warm
temperatures. The Northeast will warm to more seasonal levels compared to
the very cold temperatures observed over the weekend. The warmest
temperature anomalies will be located in the Northern and Central Plains
where daily average temperature anomalies of 15 to 25 degrees above normal
give residents in these regions and early taste of spring-like warmth.
Speaking of "spring-like", the West Coast will also be experiencing
temperatures that are quite mild as well. By mid-week, much of the Lower
48 will be under the influence of a milder temperature regime, although
cooler temperatures look to return to parts of the Great Lakes the second
half of the week.

Mullinax


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php