Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 AM EST Thu Feb 10 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Feb 10 2022 - 12Z Sat Feb 12 2022

...Early taste of spring across most of the Lower 48; record warmth in
California and the Pacific Northwest...

...Frontal system to produce rain and snow showers across the eastern
Great Lakes and New England...

...Heavier snowfall to come with the second storm system on Thursday
across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, next round of Arctic air arrives in
the Midwest by the start of the weekend...

The weather pattern the second half of the workweek is highlighted by a
robust upper level ridge positioned atop the West Coast. This ridge is
responsible for fostering considerably warmer than normal temperatures for
mid-February throughout the western third of the U.S.. The most impressive
warmth will be focused in California where daytime highs look to range
between 15 to 25 degrees above normal. Some locations in Southern
California may top 90 degrees each day and daily record high temps could
be broken from San Diego to both Oregon and Washington State. Heat
Advisories have been issued for the greater Los Angeles metro area through
the upcoming weekend. Not only are there Heat Advisories, but Wind
Advisories are also in place for a good portion of Southern California due
to a favorable pattern for Santa Ana winds to transpire. Farther north,
there are High Wind Warnings in place for parts of the northern Rockies
where an approaching upper level disturbance is primed to cause wind gusts
potentially in excess of 60 mph.

Farther east, March-like temperatures will be common throughout the Great
Plains, the Deep South, and up the East Coast. Daytime high temperature
departures in the northern High Plains will range between 20 to 30 degrees
above normal while portions of the Mid-Atlantic reach as high as 60
degrees. Highs in the 70s are expected for parts of the South Central U.S.
today and Friday. In contrast, the Great Lakes will be on the colder side
thanks to a cold front having ushered in a colder air-mass for Thursday.
Some lake effect snow showers are possible in the eastern Great Lakes this
morning but should diminish by Thursday evening. The same cold front is
set to trigger rain and snow showers in New England with minimal snowfall
accumulations expected. One area likely to receive up to six inches of
snow is near the Adirondacks in northern New York where Winter Weather
Advisories are in effect through this evening.

Meanwhile, a storm system emerging out of the Canadian Prairies delivers
another round of snow to the Upper Midwest today then makes a push into
the northern Great Lakes Thursday night. Snow totals appear to range
between 3 to 6 inches in northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin,
Michigan's U.P., and northwest Michigan. The primary cold front associated
with the wave of low pressure will trigger scattered rain and snow showers
from the Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes on Friday with these showers
spreading east into the northern and central Appalachians Friday night. A
secondary cold front trailing the main storm system provides a fresh
injection of Arctic air into the Midwest late Friday into Saturday
morning. By early Saturday morning, lows will plummet below zero
throughout much of Minnesota with frigid temperatures returning to parts
of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys later in the day on Saturday.

Mullinax


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php