Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 PM EST Thu Feb 10 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Feb 11 2022 - 00Z Sun Feb 13 2022

...Strong Canadian frontal system to bring rain showers and light to
moderate snowfall from the Northern Plains to the Northeast...

...High winds expected from the Northern High Plains to the Dakotas
through this evening...

...Early taste of spring across most of the lower 48; cooler temperatures
return to the Midwest on Saturday with a blast of Arctic air...

During the short-range period the main weather story will be focused
around a Canadian low pressure/frontal system geared up to bring rain and
snow to northeast quadrant of the CONUS. Steered ahead by a robust,
deepening upper-level trough, the low pressure system is forecast to dive
south into the Upper Midwest this evening, delivering the most notable
snowfall to the northern portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin as well as
northern and eastern Michigan. Winter Weather Advisories are currently in
effect for these areas. At the surface, wind gusts up to 75 mph may
develop where downsloping winds interact with a sharp pressure gradient to
the southwest of the system. High Wind Warnings are currently in effect
over central Montana as these winds may kick up and blow dust over the
region, thereby reducing visibility at times. Further east over the
Dakotas a slightly weaker pressure gradient could also contribute to the
development of strong winds with gusts up to 55 mph, prompting the
issuance of Wind Advisories for both states. As the system progress
eastward rain and snow showers will spread from the Middle Mississippi
Valley to the Northeast on Friday before pushing south into the Tennessee
Valley and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. Outside of the Upper Midwest only
minimal snowfall accumulations are likely, save for isolated areas of
upstate New York downwind of the Lower Great Lakes where moderate lake
effect snow showers are expected.

Elsewhere, warmer air behind the aforementioned low pressure system will
keep most of the precipitation over the Plains falling as rain until the
early hours of Friday morning when an influx of cooler temperatures behind
the first of two cold fronts will allow for a transition from rain to
snow. As the pair of cold fronts continue their southward dive on Friday
appreciable snowfall totals of around 4 to 6 inches are expected over the
Black Hills of South Dakota and Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming. Light
snowfall accumulations are anticipated for the much of the
Central/Southern Rockies and neighboring High Plains.

Temperature-wise much of the lower 48 will continue to enjoy unseasonably
warm temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above average to close out the
week. Daily highs throughout California and southern Oregon are forecast
to remain at record breaking level well into the weekend, sizzling at
around 20 to 25 degrees above normal. With temperatures expected to reach
the high 80s and low 90s throughout southern California, Heat Advisories
remain in effect from the Los Angeles metro area to the San Diego metro
area. In addition to the Heat Advisories, High Wind Warnings and Wind
Advisories have been issued for much of southeastern California due to a
favorable pattern for the development of the Santa Ana winds, which can
produce gusts up to 65 mph. Farther east, winter-like temperatures will
return to the Great Plains, Midwest, and Mississippi Valley on Saturday as
Arctic air is ejected southward behind a series of cold fronts. While
temperatures in the Great Plains will sit only moderately below normal,
significant departures between 15 and 30 degrees below average will be
felt in the Upper Midwest and Middle Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will
be so cold over portions Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan on Saturday
that high temperatures will struggle to reach double digits or, in the
hardest hit areas, rise above zero degrees.

Zavadoff


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php