Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 AM EST Sat Feb 12 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Feb 12 2022 - 12Z Mon Feb 14 2022

...Light snowfall possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
on Sunday...

...Bitter cold temperatures located over the Midwest and Great Lakes while
record breaking warmth continues through the end of the weekend across
California...

Overall, only light precipitation is expected across most of the Nation
over the next few days as a strong cold front pushes into the Gulf of
Mexico today and off the East Coast by Sunday. This will allow for a
relatively dry airmass to dominate the Lower 48. Additionally, weak and
moisture-starved low pressure systems are forecast to dive into the
north-central U.S. during this time frame. Farther east, a strengthening
upper-level jet streak over the Northeast will support a blossoming area
of light snow late Saturday night over the central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic. As temperatures drastically cool during the nighttime hours
and behind the advancing cold front, snow is expected to accumulate into
Sunday morning from Virginia to southern New England. Snowfall totals are
generally expected to remain below 4 inches, with the greatest potential
for locally higher amounts found in the Shenandoah region of Virginia.
Snow showers should come to an end throughout most areas by Sunday
afternoon, with lingering wintry weather found along the immediate
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coastline and southern New England into Sunday
night.

Elsewhere, continued cold air advection over the Great Lakes will produce
lake effect snow showers through the beginning of the week. Maximum
snowfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches are possible across far southwest
Michigan, where Winter Weather Advisories are in effect. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are possible today across southeast Texas as
the aforementioned cold front pushes southward. For the same reason, rain
chances are also expected to increase on Sunday across Florida.

After one last afternoon of springlike warmth along the East Coast today,
a bitter cold airmass located over the Midwest and Great Lakes is poised
to surge into the region by Sunday. This will lead to much of the Eastern
U.S. experiencing below average temperatures through Valentine's Day. The
core of the cold air, with subzero high temperatures, is forecast to
remain over the Upper Midwest. Wind Chill Warnings are in effect across
the Minnesota Arrowhead, while Wind Chill Advisories extend into eastern
North Dakota, northeast South Dakota, much of Minnesota, and far northern
Iowa. Residents in these regions are urged to take proper precautions
while outdoors, as dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on
exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

Meanwhile, record breaking warmth is once again in the forecast over parts
of California today thanks to a stagnant upper-level ridge in place. Highs
into the 70s and 80s will have the potential to break several daily
records. For Southern California, highs into the low 90s are possible both
today and Sunday, which has prompted Heat Advisories to be issued. The
combination of low relative humidity and gusty winds has also led to the
potential for elevated fire weather across the region. This stretch of
abnormally warm weather is forecast to finally diminish by Monday as an
approaching frontal system enters the Pacific Northwest.

Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php