Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
537 PM EST Sat Feb 12 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 13 2022 - 00Z Tue Feb 15 2022

...Light snow over parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England...

...Light snow for the Upper Midwest and lake-effect snow downwind from the
Great Lakes...

...Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees below average over the Great
Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, the Tennessee Valley, and Western/Central
Gulf Coast...

...Record-setting heat and a concern for wildfire activity continues for
parts of California...

A front extending from the Northeast Coast to the Central Gulf Coast will
move eastward off most of the East Coast by Sunday morning. This front
will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Western/Central
Gulf Coast this evening. However, as upper-level energy interacts with the
front overnight, there will be a weak wave of low pressure developing
along it over the Southeast that will result in a developing swath of
light snow from the northern Mid-Atlantic to southern New England Sunday
morning. Locally a few inches of accumulation are expected before the
system quickly exits offshore of the East Coast by midday. Much colder air
temperatures will be arriving, and temperatures will be as much as 15 to
20 degrees below average over the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast,
the Tennessee Valley, and Western/Central Gulf Coast on Sunday. The colder
air filtering over the Great Lakes region will also be responsible for
some accumulating lake-effect snowfall.

Elsewhere, a weak wave of low pressure moving southeastward across the
Northern Plains will move to South Carolina by Sunday evening. The system
will produce light snow over parts of the Upper Midwest this evening, and
into the Middle Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning. Upper-level energy
associated with this will produce light snow over parts of the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley by Sunday evening and the Central Appalachians Sunday
night. By late Sunday, there will also be another wave of low pressure
moving over parts of the Upper Midwest, which will move southeastward to
the Middle Mississippi Valley Monday morning before moving northeastward
to eastern Ontario by Monday evening. Some light snow will also be
produced by this system over the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes late
Sunday into Monday.

Meanwhile, across the West, a ridge of high pressure continues to persist
overhead which is bringing widespread above average temperatures and very
dry weather. This will maintain record-breaking warmth to areas of
California to round out the weekend. Highs on Sunday should reach well
into the 70s and 80s and will have the potential to break several daily
records. For parts of southern California and the interior deserts of the
Southwest, it will be hot with some areas likely reaching the low 90s.
Heat advisories are in effect here through Sunday evening as a result.
This heat combined with low relative humidity and gusty winds will also
maintain an elevated threat of wildfire activity across the region. This
latest stretch of abnormally warm weather is forecast to finally diminish
by Monday as an approaching cold front enters the Pacific Northwest. This
front will bring rain and higher elevation snowfall to the Pacific
Northwest, northern Great Basin and northern Rockies by late Monday.

Ziegenfelder/Orrison

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php